DelMar Analysis 7-23-17 by @Gio_Ponti24
Del Mar Summer Meet 2017
Sunday, July 23, 2017
Is anyone surprised that Arrogate is a horse after all and not just a machine sent back from the future to demoralize our crop of horses? I am not. If you have been reading along through the first days of the meet you would have noticed that I hinted at this being a prep race and a much needed race for this champion. Granted I also conceded that the race would be difficult to pry from his hooves but it was mentioned that it was a wonderful opportunity to place a few dollars on the other runners to place and show in hopes Arrogate was having an off day. Racing luck was assisting us all as Arrogate started making a move in the far turn and out of nowhere it looked like he had stepped on a treadmill and jumped up and down in place without making any ground on the eventual winner Accelerate under Victor Espinoza. Victor should really consider changing his name to David as he has been able to slay Goliath type horses such as Beholder and now Arrogate with horses, that although on paper seemed to be decent runners, didn’t measure up to those Champions.
This sport is not for the faint of heart. Bob Baffert would be the best example of such as in 1995 coming off a decent run in Dubai he brought the great Silver Charm to Del Mar in hopes of capturing the San Diego. That runner went off as the overwhelming favorite, at 1/5, against 4 other runners and just like Arrogate could not deliver the goods, finishing 5th and last. I suppose this year was a better result as Arrogate finished 4th, one spot ahead of last place, but its worthy to note that the jockey aboard El Huerfano lost the irons and was unable to control him for the majority of the race. Arrogate was reported to be in good health this morning and looked happy, therefore we will take it as a victory for the sport as we will be able to see him try and redeem himself against Accelerate in the Pacific Classic. If Arrogates previous race at this track is any indication he may not be fond of this race course as he was all out to win that race. The Pacific Classic may be another opportunity to beat another favorite.
Aside from Arrogate and the San Diego Handicap, yesterday’s card also featured the Eddie Read Stakes going 1 1/8 miles on the turf and featured the Peter Eurton charge Ashleyluvssugar. She too was an overwhelming favorite, and was also unable to deliver in the stretch run. Hunt under Flavian Prat was our best bet yesterday and he was able to capture the victory paying $8.60 to win. Ashleyluvssugar ran a credible second paying $2.20.
After 4 days of racing the current Jockey standings have Rafael Bejerano on top with 6 wins and both Flavian Prat and Evan Roman nipping at his heels with 5 apiece. The Raging Cajun Kent Desormeaux has 4 wins while sporting a healthy 60% of ITM finishes. With more racing to come it will be interested to see if Raffi can hold on to this lead. The trainer standings look a little more interesting as there is a 5 way tie with 2 wins between D’Amato, Sadler, O’Neill, Ellis and Morey. At the top sits the expected Peter Miller that although started off cold in the meet has suddenly found his stride and reeled off consecutive days with at least 1 winner. The other trainer at the top is Valdimir Cerin who had quite the opening day winning both halves of the early double. These standings will shake up more frequently that the rider standings will but with a lot more runners being entered by Peter Miller than anyone else it is still expected that he will be at the top of the standings when the dust settles.
Sunday’s race card offers 9 opportunities to close out the weekend with success and begin the upcoming week with the right foot. Yesterday’s selections performed well as our top 2 exotics plays in the first completed the exacta and trifecta, our long shot play in the second also completed the exacta and our best bet rallied to beat the heavy favorite in the Eddie Read Stakes. Let’s take a look at some of the races and see if we can help you all structure your tickets into winners:
Race1:
#3: Dancing Belle: Looking for a price in the first race to shake things up for the day. This field has a lot of lightly raced runners, some with impressive workout, but I end up on the Desormeaux charge in the opener. After 2 spins on the Santa Anita dirt track where his best finish was a distant third he finally gets the services of the trainer’s brother and perhaps a better ride around the course. As previously mentioned the track has moments where it looks tiring and off the pace runners do not fare well, but with an alert start and most of these runners being green and anxious to bolt perhaps this guy won’t need to accelerate too much through the stretch and those horses will come back to him on their own. (Exotics Play)
Race 3:
#6: Blackjackcat: The heavy hitters in this race appear to be Vyjack, who returns after an 8 month layoff, and Calculator who seems to be a turf sprinter more than a router. With that said, I will be looking for Gary Stevens to keep Blackjackcat in the clear, right behind Dalmore and Street Lad. This runner has been running some very good races as of late with his last race being a solid victory going at the same distance as this event under the same rider. Granted this race is tougher than the last event but this gelding has some back class. If this horse is able to rate just off the pace he may be able to get first jump on those deep closers and perhaps hold on for the solid victory at odds that may be around 6-1 to 10-1. (Value Play)
Race 7: San Clemente Handicap
#5: Kenda: The money will go in the direction of Sircat Sally as she boasts a 7 for 7 record, 5 of which are on the turf. What is interesting about that runner and let me to choose Kenda is that Jerry legs up Van Dyke. I’ve got nothing against Van Dyke as he is a solid rider, but Sircat Sally had been ridden by Mike Smith, who is elsewhere, but had also been ridden by Tyler Baze who ends up on Kenda. I will follow Tyler and hope he made the right decision. Kenda has also run 7 times and sports a record of 2-2-1. Last few races she has been battling agains Madam Dancealot (#9), but got the best of that runner in their last match up. This is a huge step up, but this runner has demonstrated the ability to rate a few lengths off the pace and make one charge which will come in handy if someone is able to soften up Sircat Sally. Kenda will be making her first start going longer than 7f and will also be facing classy runners, but if there is ever a time to spring an upset and stamp herself as a serious contender it will be today. (Longshot Play)
Race 9:
#9: Trustworthy: In a race full of question marks I go with the new shooter out of Smart Strike. This colt will debut with Lasix under the guidance of Van Dyke, who if everything goes according to my selections, will be looking to redeem himself from a defeat in the San Clemente Handicap. This runner has been training fairly consistently, with his last being at 6f best of 3 for the day. It’s a good indication that he is ready to rock and roll in his first start. As mentioned this race is muddled with the presence of a KY derby runner that is still a maiden and is making his first start on the grass after 12 attempts on other surfaces (dirt,synthetic), the return of Zenyatta’s son Cozmic One (2 year layoff), a runner fresh off the plane in Indoctrination that hails from the same barn that sends out New Dancer under Flavian Prat. There are a lot of questions in this race with no definitive standout so I decide to go for the homerun and make a 20-1 my best bet of the day. Let’s close out the racing week with a #BOOM! (BEST BET)
**keep an eye out on the tote for #12 Aussie Fox and include in tickets- at 9/2 in the morning line under hot riding Bejerano and from a sire that has produced solid turfers this colt may spring up with the opportunity to stretch his legs for the first time.**
