Kentucky Derby Day 5-5-18
Churchill Downs
Kentucky Derby Day
5/5/2018
Race 1. A tough opening race with a few Maidens looking to win right back versus competition that has been at this level. I’m interested in 8 HONORABLE TREASURE who jumped at the break last out and was wide throughout. I’m hoping for improvement and will look to key with other runners. 3 COVE BLUE has had time off since running poorly in the Gotham. He has very good recent works and could be ready for a peak performance for Romans. 6 ONCE ON WHISKEY and 2 SHARE THE UPSIDE are both lightly raced and looking to win right back from their maiden victories. I believe 5 CROSSWALK may be way over bet in this field.
Top Selections 8-3-6-2
Race 2. I’m looking to make this early double a Corie Lanerie combo as 6 BIG GREY ROCKET the four year old son of Tapit will stretch out to a mile making his second start off a layoff. He has the potential to go out front and run gate to wire. 7 SUPER DERECHO has been running consistent recently and figures to be a part of the pace. 5 MISSPENT YOUTH is lightly raced and moving from turf to dirt and must be used in exotics along with 1 GRAY SKY who will be along late to pick up the pieces.
Top Selections 6-7-1-5
Race 3. HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME 4 may find himself in a good early position which could make it difficult for others to run him down. To me the early speed from 1,3,7 May be cheap speed that provably wont be around at the wire. If Ortiz can sit off these early runners and then make a move off the far turn, he may be tough to catch. Of course he his facing some runners with back class like 6 IRISH FREEDOM and 8 LOOKIN AT LEE. I will look to make some exacta boxes and the post time odds will help me determine how to arrange these plays.
Top Selections 4-8-6
Race 4. Passing
Race 5. This will be the second time out of ten that 8 MCCRAKEN will run in a non graded stakes. It looks like there’s a lot of pace in here and he’s 4/5 at this track. He reunites with Hernandez having been off since October but I expect him to be tough in this spot. I think Ortiz will be very aggressive with 5 PETROV and try to win on the front end. The distance is a question for him. I’ll also use 9 DAZZLING GEM and 6 BEHAVIORAL BIAS who will be sitting just off the pace.
Top Selections 8-5-9-6
Race 6. There’s not much more for me to say about these talented mares. The top picks from DRF I can’t argue with although I will be leaning on 5 LEWIS BAY as my top choice. Second off the layoff with lots of experience. I’ll be using in big exactas with 1 FINLEY’S LUCKY CHARM and 8 AMERICAN GIRL. Both of who will be very tough and good alternates in your multi race wagers.
Top Selections 5-1-8
Race 7. This is almost a Pass because it’s so difficult. I’m going to go with 11 LA CORONEL who from the outside will follow the 10 to her inside who will try and go to the lead. If LA CORONEL can secure a good early position into the first turn, I would expect her to run a big race. I’ll be using 3 DREAM A WHILE and 4 INSTA ERMA in exacta box bets with my top choice and will also bring 1 MADAM DANCEALOT who will be closing late into the mix.
Top Selections 11-3-4-1
Race 8. Making these picks are not exciting to me. I go through the PP’s make my selections and then look to see that they are almost the same as the DRF picks and mostly short priced odds. This is why I feel it’s a better service of me to send picks closer to post time based on the best value plays. Anyway. 10 & 3 look to be super tough with the most class. One has speed, the other rates and I’ll look to key them with 1 & 7 and maybe more depending on final odds.
Top Selections 10-3-1-7
Race 9. RUSHING FALL 12 will be looking to keep a perfect record and is also the most lightly raced runner in the field. She’s won on three different tracks at a mile or more. Looks like a good horse to key on. I will also be using 1,9,10,11 in exactas with my top pick.
Top Selections 12-1-9-11
Race 10. I think 2 LOMBO is an underlay at 15-1 ML odds. After some time off i hope he will run well to get in the exacta or trifecta at a price. 8 MASK has two impressive victories and will be put to the test here. Bob Baffert puts the blinkers on 12 RESTORING HOPE who may be set for a big performance after finishing second in the Wood Memorial. I’m leaning more towards 12 as my main pick but it could change come post time on Saturday. Subscribers will get the final picks sent to their phone.
Top Selections 12-1-8
Race 11. I’m interested in 5 CHANNEL MAKER to run them all down. 2,3 and 10 should all be on the early pace but they all have their faults. I think Chad Browns 3 KURILOV is interesting with only a few attempts on turf having put in a great effort last out. He gets time off and has put in some great workouts. The price should be generous even with the connections. 10 BEACH PATROL runs big figures but has only placed twice at ChurchillDowns. That makes me skeptical.
Top Selections 5-3-10-2
Race 12. My thought process about this Derby is that I want to believe that 7 JUSTIFY will be the super horse to emerge and win this by many clear lengths. In that case I will use him in many exacta and trifectas with the field. My second top Selections to win would be 5,6,11,16,18,19. My long shot pick to win is 3 PROMISES FULFILLED. I will exclude 1 & 8 from all of my wagers. I’ll play exactas with the rest of the field with some of my second choices. Based on post time odds I’ll decide who to play in Doubles and make a few win bets versus exacta boxes.
Top pick: 7 JUSTIFY
Long Shot : 3 PROMISES FULFILLED
Runners to use in exactas: 5,6,11,16,18,19.
Throw outs 1,8
Others to use underneath in exactas 2,4,9,10,12,13,14,15,17,20
Race 13. 11-9-3-1
Race 14. 6-7-4-5
subscribers will get my bets text to them 2-4 minutes before each race.
