DelMar Selections 8-11-17 by @Gio-Ponti24
Del Mar Summer Meet
Friday, August 11, 2017
The weekend is upon, but first we have to maneuver through Friday’s 8 race card and survive the Summer Concert tonight featuring Ludacris. In addition to the concert going on tonight today’s racing card features the Solana Beach Stakes for fillies and mares. This stakes race is only the beginning as this weekend will feature the Best Pal Stakes (GII) on Saturday and the Rancho Bernardo Handicap (GIII). Yesterday’s races were a mixture of favorites and longshots and it created a perfect storm where the jackpot Pick-6 was hit to the tune of $190,433.80. We started the day with a favorite that failed to hit the board and a best bet that was 5/2 on the morning line and dropped to 3/5, however did manage to win. Our longshot play in the 5th race ran a respectable 3rd, however was beaten by a $60 winner! Needless to say, it wasn’t the results we hoped for, but lucky for us the page has turned and we have a new day to work through and hopefully conquer. Let’s get started!
Race 1:
#1 Fabrication: In this wide open event where every runner is lightly raced I am going to take a stab with the inside colt. The workouts aren’t flashy but they are consistent. This runner attracts Tyler Baze a solid gate rider to be able to get an alert start. There is not much confidence going into this selection, but it’s a race where you may want to spread in your vertical wagers. Any one of the 9 can win it, but with #9 Shane Doan having run two solid 2nd’s at Canterbury and being the likely post time favorite I want to try and beat this favorite.
Race 2:
#1 Conquest Typhoon: This race is very puzzling as there isn’t much speed other than Little Scotty. Scotty appears to be the lone speed but then we take into consideration the distance of 1 mile 3/8 and that advantage for that runner is diminished. Not to say Scotty can’t take them all the way but I get the feeling that it may be a little long for him. With that said I want to take someone that can stay in contact with that runner and this one fits the bill. From the rail post Prat will be able to save ground and has enough back class to get first jump on the late closers and hold them off. Granted the last 2 races haven’t been ideal but those races came against much tougher than he is facing today. Let’s hope that Prat can work some magic with this gelding and set him down in the right direction turning for home. (Best Bet)
Race 3:
#8 Sugaratsundown: The last time Tyler was aboard this filly she finished 2nd beaten by a nose. That race is important because it was at a tougher level and it was a race in which she used her natural speed to gain position and fought through the stretch. The last two races she was taken off her game and was off the pace which resulted in dreadful results. I like the move to blinkers for this event in which she will be able to stay focused from her outside post and dictate how hard to push the tempo. She will have competition up front as some inside runners have zip but I am hopeful that Tyler is the difference maker for this gal.
Race 4:
#7 Path of David: Let’s start with some negative for this gelding- he loses Rafael to the runner that beat him last time out in Spanish Hombre #2. The positive is that there is no dramatic drop off of the effort workout since last race was solid and gets more speed in this event. This runner has some back class to go back to and with the speed signed on he should get a nice set up for his closing kick. Hoping Gonzalez can guide him towards a clear path and isn’t left with too much to do. We should get all of the 6-1 on the morning line.
#11 Alaskan Son: I am adding a second selection simply off of the efforts this runner showed last year locally. He came off the plane and won at first asking then ran a very respectable 3rd after encountering traffic trouble. What has happened in his last 3 races is unexplainable. He has been eased, and has refused to run. Perhaps a change to this venue, the significant drop in class and a rider switch will take this son of Kodiak. If it does wake him, he will also be flying late.
Race 6:
#7 Anonymity: Baffert seems to have a stranglehold on this race with Pretty Owl on the inside and Hot Blooded Girl directly on the inside of my selection. This filly is a first time started for the Mandella barn that cost $600,000 and appears to be much more than just a hefty purchase. The workouts have been solid. What is encouraging to see is the speed he has shown in the morning. Madella doesn’t work them too fast in the morning so natural ability seems to push this filly. Victor hops aboard this daughter of Tapit for the first spin and I suspect she will use stalking tactics for her debut.
Race 7: Solana Beach Stakes
#7 Dressed to a T: I am not sure why but I feel that this race could potentially be the deal breaker for many pick-6 and pick-4 players as many will single #2 Majestic Heat or double up with that horse and #8 Shehastheritestuff. The right horse to me, aside from the 2 deserving favorites, is this mare. She is making her second start off a short layoff, returns to a surface where she has had success and returns to run with state-breds. The lack of early speed will also play to this ones favor as she has a few races where she has been able to stay close (second flight) which could mean a jump before the late closers start unwinding their late kicks. At 8-1 in the morning line, and presumably higher, I will wager and hope she is able to get back to her winning ways.
The following are the ways I will structure some of my plays- Change them to your preference or keep as they are. Play at your discretion.
Pick 5: $30
1,4,5,6,9 with 1,3 with 5,8,9 with 7,11 with 1
Late Pick 4: $54
1,3,4,5,7,9 with 3,6,7, with 7,8 with 1,8,10
Race1: Exacta Box: 1,4,6,9
Race 2: Exacta: 1 with 2,6 and Win/Place: 1
Race 4: Exacta Box: 2,6,7,11
Race 7: Win/Place: 7
