DelMar Selections 8-18-17 by Gio_Ponti24

Del Mar Summer Meet
Friday, August 18, 2017

Pacific Classic Eve and everyone is promoting the race to be a rematch between Arrogate and Accelerate without giving much of a chance to anyone else in the field. The field also includes Collected, another solid Bob Baffert charge, and 2 chances for the hot O’Neill barn in Donworth and Curlin Road. The question in my mind is if Baffert entered Collected as a rabbit to burn out Accelerate to give Arrogate a better opportunity or if he is just not confident Arrogate can deliver the goods and wants a second option? It could also be that he is greedy and wants to complete the exacta by himself. It will take less than 2 minutes to find out who will stamp themselves as an early favorite for the Breeders Cup, but it will take less than 10 seconds to determine if Arrogate will bounce back. As I mentioned before in a previous post, if Arrogate jumps out of the gate infront, with more energy and flanks the early leaders he will more than likely win, but if he lags as he did in his previous run on this track we may be in for a shocker. This weekend’s races also provides us with some insight as a mandatory Pick-6 payout will be in the cards on Saturday which could mean potential bombs in that card and a lot of chalk for today’s races.
Before we dive into the weekend card and all the stakes excitement let’s take a look at today’s races and pick out some winners.
Race1:
#4 Karma King: There is no explanation as to why this guy stopped badly in the last other than the “bounce” factor. He was off about 1 year prior to his return at Santa Anita where he finished a very good 4th after fighting it out the entire mile journey. Last time out he tried the same distance on this track and it resulted in his first out of money finish on this surface. I like to see that Koriner brings him back along with Theriot at a more suitable distance, and with some very nice bullet works in tow. There is other speed signed up for this event but this guy has a stalking gear and could sit right off of the pace and get first jump on the pacesetters. All systems appear to point for a top performance as he drops to face lesser, cuts in distance, has worked lights out and remains on his preferred surface for this try.
#3 Blue Anchor: Flavian is red hot these days. After trailing Evin Roman most of the meet atop the leaderboard he has finally pulled even and has all the momentum going into today’s card. It’s interesting to see that this is where he lands and that Theriot lands on our top choice instead. This guy has also put up good performances on this track and holds a speed advantage over Karma King as he sits inside that runner and appears to have more speed in his corner. If Flavian can ration his speed he can take them a long way.
Race 2:
#3 Gosofar: The outside runner #9 Vegas Vic, will likely take the majority of the support which bodes well for my selection. This runner has been knocking on the door and burning money along the way, but he has done so on the turf. His previous runs on the dirt have been less stellar than those on the turf at first glance, however the recent workout on the dirt on this track gave me renewed hope in this runner. I also like the fact that Stevens stays on and we will be getting a better price. It’s now or never for this gelding.
Race 3:
#3 Lob City: I am going to take a swing with this 15-1 shot in a wide open affair. Last 2 races after the claim have been her best yet with improving beyer figures and a good 3rd place finish against slightly better. Her record on the Del Mar sod leaves a lot to be desired from this mare but she has been a consistent check earner posting a 16/25 mark in the money overall. She has good tactical speed which should allow her to sit within striking range and pick up the pieces if the speed comes back and hopefully have enough to hold off the deep closers in the field.
Race 4:
#5 Take Charge Deputy and #4 Nova: It’s too early to write either one of these colts off of their debuts. Both runners had horrendous starts to their careers as they broke in and were green throughout. #5 was the favorite in that run and was expected to show a better run with that $180K price tag but finished more than 60 lengths behind the field. Workout for that runner haven’t been anything to race about but I suspect we haven’t seen the best from him yet. Nova was also bet well in his first start but also did not run very well, although didn’t finish as far back as #5. Both runners have solid gate riders for this spin and should give better accounts of themselves in this event.
Race 5:
#4 Packing Heat: It’s a very hard way to start the late pick-4 with a full field of 12, but it also gives the opportunity for some longshots to blow up the toteboard. I side with a runner that has declining beyer figures and has been losing ground in each of his last starts, not to mention meets some of the same runners that beat him last time out. Why? A very big change of rider from Puglisi to a solid turf course rider in Brice Blanc as well as those workouts that have been sizzling. This gelding appears to be on his toes. If this guy is able to reproduce the run 3 back he could be in the thick of things. For pick-4 purposes I would spread heavily in this first race to at least get out. Other notable longshots, #1 Dr Troutman had a solid second going on the turf at Del Mar, #3 Accountability a runner who was favored over #2 Popular Kid and will be at least 4-5 times the price of that runner and #5 Ibon a colt who won at first asking beating #12 Plate Side.
Race 7: The Green Flash Handicap
#5: Jimmy Bouncer: Something has to give in this race. There is speed atop speed atop speed signed up and although the race is going a short distance (5F) some of these runners will have to pack it up on the far turn and the leaders slow down. With all of that said I land on the Pender gelding who is looking to make it three in a row while returning to the sod and picking up a different rider for this event. The workouts are very encouraging and he has done well on the turf here in the past so there is some talent here. I like that this runner can sit 3rd or 4th and pounce on the far turn. The price is fair and should float up as he makes his first start for this new outfit.
#3: Tribalist: I could not move on without mentioning this runner. He started his career in 2013 on the Del Mar dirt, yet he has only raced 5 times. Multiple layoff lines are present which is a major concern, but while that is true he has been winning off of those rests. Last two victories have been at this trip and track and have been very good races. The workouts leading up to this event have been solid, although not great, but if he can shake loose up front he can make it 4 in a row and 3 for 3 on this track and trip. Food for thought?
The following are the ways I will structure some of my plays- Change them to your preference or keep as they are. Play at your discretion
Pick 5: $18
1,4,5 with 3,4,9 with 3,4 with 4,5 with 4 – This pick 5 appears awfully difficult and could pay handsomely. I am making the 4 an aggressive single at 12-1, but as I mentioned before spread and include those longshots
Pick 4: $18
1,2,3,4,5,7 with 1,3 with 3,4,5 with 6
Pick 6: $16
I suspect the carryover pool to play through to tomorrow as there is a mandatory pay out tomorrow. With that said this ticket will be very small with VERY aggressive longshots.
3,4 with 5 with 1,4 with 3 with 3,5 with 6