DelMar Selections 8-24-17 by Gio_Ponti24

Del Mar Summer Meet
Thursday, August 24, 2017

After some much needed days of rest we return to try and right the ship and move towards gaining momentum before the weekend’s races and more importantly the breeder’s cup. Horse racing is a difficult game and it’s not because of the money that is lost rather the mental strain when a losing streak hits you. Yes, losing money is always hard and it also wears on you, but betting race after race and not seeing your horses win is even harder. The breaking point, I believe, is when you’re in that slump and you try to break out of it by betting the overwhelming favorite that is on the track for a glorified workout rather than an actual race and they fail to deliver the goods. When you see that happen, the blood begins to boil, you crumble the tickets in your hand, throw your program as far as you can toss it and shred the form you have been holding onto the entire day. It’s at that point that clarity seeps in believe it or not. The moment that the rage overtakes you after seeing your last few dollars go down in flames when the favorite fails to run is when we begin to question why we are betting, why we are at the track so often. It is only at that point that true lovers of this game are separated from those that are simply passing by. The Pacific Classic is the prime example of this scenario. On this day the Pacific Classic was slated as the 8th race out of 11 and was the beginning of the late pick-4. Arrogate opened as the 1/9 overwhelming choice after many analysts proclaimed he was “back” and that the “real” Arrogate was due to show up. Bettors took the bait, many singling in the pick-4, the pick-6, and making wagers keying the gray colt. Turning into the stretch it looked like a replay of his debut run as he struggled to really grasp the track and gain traction and the leader, Collected, slowly inched away. A ray of hope poked through the storm as Collected “appeared” to slow down midway through the stretch and Arrogate began closing on him, but alas nothing more than a mirage as Martin Garcia was simply beginning to gear down the other Baffert charge and Arrogate was simply catching up to a geared down horse and ended up second while simultaneously crushing the hopes of thousands of cashing in on what was a great pool for the pick-4, pick-6 and also the horizontal players. Shortly after the race analysts again began to chirp and holler about how much better Arrogate ran and that it appeared he was rounding into form for the Breeders Cup. For a moment it felt like these characters were living in a different dimension and were watching Zenyatta coming from behind and barely losing by a nose to Blame rather than watching Arrogate losing his second race in a row on the very track where the Championship races will be run. Now, the story wasn’t Arrogate losing or Collected being overshadowed by his more accomplished stable mate. The story isn’t even whether these two runners will meet up with Gun Runner in November, rather the story is about that horseplayer looking at his wad of tickets behind the TVG set still wondering if he/she had simply watched the wrong race or if there was still any semblance of balance on the voucher they were anxiously looking for. The real heartbreak occurred in the stands as bettors trying to hold onto some hope for the day were forced to throw their tickets away after that race and ultimately throw in the white flag. The silver lining in all of this is the fact that many of these players returned the following day, and on Wednesday the following week and many may be reading this anxiously waiting for tips and selections that can help them during the Thursday card. The sport is a tricky one, a game of luck more than anything, but it’s the sport where lovers of this game are easily separated from the masses because although the game can be cruel at times we come back to it. It’s a game that keeps many of us feeling alive, a shot of adrenaline in the middle of the day during the work week that keeps the blood pumping and the hope that tomorrow will be a better day. It’s the Sport of Kings.
Welcome to Thursday’s Del Mar card. 8 races are scheduled for the day and while no graded stakes are scheduled a lot of money is on the line as a continued Pick-6 jackpot of $121,137.29 carried over from yesterday’s races. Additionally, Prat has regained control of the jockey standings with 25 wins, while Evan Roman is still closely behind with 23 victories to his name. New week, clean slate, hopefully better results. Let’s get started!
Race 1:
#6 Cupid’s Beau: With the defection of the rail horse we are left with 6 runners and what appears to be ample speed in this race. My selection adds speed to the race, which may play negatively for him, but he does possess an outside slot which can perhaps grant Laura the option to rate just off the pace or gun and try to make things uncomfortable for the other inside speed when she crosses this gelding over. Laura has been riding fairly well during the meet so I’ll look for her to continue doing so on this charge. Last time out he raced for from the inside and wasn’t able to produce a run down the stretch, but the race came back live as the third and fourth race finishers came back to win their following start. The distance doesn’t appear to pose a hurdle as he has raced fairly well and should get more speed this time around.
#7 Pumpkin Star: If my top selection fails to provide a late kick and there is sufficient speed as I suspect there will be, perhaps this runner can make the last run. The price on this gelding will be much better than on my top pick as bug boy Fuentes hops on. He will be getting overlooked in the wagering, but if you look closely this horse has a fond spot for the Del Mar surface having raced twice before and winning 1 and finishing 3rd in his last attempt here. His recent workout show he may still have more left in the tank.
Race 2:
#5 Cammy’s Music: The rail horse is again scratched in this race leaving 5 to run. The heavy favorite of the race will be #2 Vibe for the Hess Barn with Desourmeaux taking the irons as that gelding plummets down from an optional claimer and G3 in his last two attempts. Despite all that, I end up on the son of Maclean’s Music. This runner appears to be the controlling speed and although he stopped badly last time out he drops slightly, takes off blinkers, and Maldonado sticks around. I suspect that the other runners will not respect him much and will let him set a leisurely pace. If Maldonado can settle this gelding into a comfortable stride and save something for the far turn, he could have a big say in the race.
Race 3:
#2 Deanns Mojave: Andy Mathis brings this filly down south to face off against saltier competition than she has been facing but has the advantage of consistency. She has been in the money 6 out of her first 7 starts from which 2 have been on grass. Her beyer figures matches well against this bunch and with no clear standouts in the race why not take a shot with a 6-1?
#8 Todos Santos: After her first few races I was hoping they would bring her here to run on grass, however she came to Del Mar to run on dirt again. She failed to produce a run on the dirt going 6F. her previous races though were respectable at shorter distances where she was coming from out of the clouds and appear to be screaming out for more yardage. She gets more ground today and is on the turf, where her sire wins with approximately 18% of his turf starters. This will be her toughest assignment to date as she jumps up in class, stretches out and gets a new surface, but she does get an important jock upgrade to Maldonado. Edwin should be able to keep her closer today and she takes to the footing could post the upset.
Race 4:
#7 Pedro Cerrano: Shortens up for this attempt after finishing 5th in his last attempt on this track as the favorite. He didn’t lose by all that much, all things considered. He battled throughout and lost by a little less than 2 lengths. An aggressive jockey change to Martin Garcia made by Peter Miller. Nothing against Pedroza, but he is more of a gate rider and this horse seems to prefer to come from just off the pace. With speed to his inside he should be able to get a cozy stalking trip from the outside and rebound on his preferred track. (Best Bet)
Race 7:
#4 Midnight Swinger: The first thing that pops out from this race is the lack of early pace. The inside runner, Tink’s Twirl, may be the controlling speed as the others seem content to come from the clouds and do the running in the final 16th. This filly owns some tactical speed that should keep her close, and she gets a huge upgrade to Flavian Prat as Van Dyke sides with the 6 for Hollendorfer . She is coming to this race after being on the shelf for more than 7 months, but comes with a series of solid workouts for this event. In an open race should get a fair price.
#10 Shazara: If this mare can avoid getting left behind like the last time out where she gave the field a 12 length head start she could swallow them up turning for home. This mare possesses a solid late kick and has raced well on this turf course. Tyler stays on board after consecutive 4th place finishes. Could redeem herself after burning a lot of money last time out at a square price.
The following are the way I will be structuring my plays for the day. Take from my selections, play as they are or toss, play to your preference and at your discretion.
Pick 5: $36
6,7 with 2,3,5 with 2,8,4,5 with 7 with 2,4,6
Pick 4: $30
2,4,6 with 1,4,5,6,8 with 4,10 with 2,3
Race 1: Exacta: 6 with 7,3 and Double 6,7 with 5,3
Race 2: Win/Place 5
Race 3: Exacta Box: 2,4,5,8
Race 4: Win/Place 7
Race 7: Exacta Box: 4,8,9,10