Gulfstream Park Analysis Races 1-5 for 1/4/18

Gulfstream Park
1/4/18 Analysis by 1MinuteToPost

Race 1. 7.5F T CLM 16k N2L

PADDY POINT -Has races at Woodbine that look competitive enough. The trainer and jockey are ice cold. Hard to use on top but could possibly surprise at a price.
TRAJECLY HIP -Closed well at this level last week. Vasquez jumps off to get on ML favorite. 5/2 ML odds seems a bit too enthusiastic. I would need 10-1 to back this runner.
PROUD LEGACY -I think this horse is ready to show improved performance and I’m considering to use as my key horse. Has early speed but has not won on grass yet.
GIO PATRICIA -Has been moving down the ranks and can’t close the deal. Has run at higher levels last year. I would be careful here and not take too short a price.
QUINTA TATA – Seems like an outsider but I would include underneath in exactas
DIAMOND LOVE – Last Race was atrocious. I think I’ll let this one beat me.
MELODY CROON – Another long shot that could possible outrun her odds. I’ll use underneath.
LITTLE BABY BELLA – I’m curious to see what Jose Ortiz does with this one. Send her hard to the lead? (If so I think she sets pace and fades) Or does he take back and sit two or three lengths off and try and make one run. I’d go for the second option if I was Ortiz. It’s hard to back this one on top as her Win and all of her placings were at GPW

Summary: I’m looking to use 3 PROUD LEGACY as a key horse and maybe use 1 PADDY POINT for some coverage in doubles. I can see a price sneaking in like 5 QUINTA TATA or 7 MELODY CROON. (Subscribers will get my final wagers sent to their cell phone a few minutes before post)

Race 2. 5.5F CLM 6250k N3L

FIRST GOAL -Continues to get dropped in claiming price and switches to the main track from numerous turf and synthetic races. Has only won twice on the Woodbine synthetic track. Something went very wrong with this runner and I wouldn’t consider using at 8-1. I would need 16-1 or more to consider backing.
STARSHIP DANNY -Second race off layoff and reunites with jockey who won twice with this runner at this track and distance. Price will be generous once again. I would include in exotics and as a possible hedge.
MO BOURBON – Getting a big drop, cutting back in distance and picking up top jock. Could just steal this race. May be a key horse for me. Odds will tell me more at post time.
HORSE SPOTTER CARL – Hard for me to see this runner doing more than setting the pace. The class droppers have speed, this one has only won with speed and her speed is a cut below the ones who are dropping (1 and 3)
JOURNEYS END- Looks tough to figure out. Has run ok on both turf and dirt. I think this runner has to be included in wagers even though he looks to be more of a pace setter.
DATTTS ARTIES BOY – An outsider that has won before with Vasquez.
LEMON ROYAL – Looks to be another who will come out running. Will be hard for me to back at low odds.
KOKOMO WILDCAT – Another taking a big drop and changing surfaces. Has some speedy recent workouts which makes me think he will also come out running.

Summary: It looks like a good amount of speed in this race. It could turn out to be a race that I pass if three or four of the speeds go off at similar odds. It may also be a good bet to put a few dollars on STARSHIP DANNY and hope he gets a crazy pace to close into. (Subscribers will get my final wagers sent to their cell phone a few minutes before post)

Race 3. 1M CLM 25k

CASUAL CAROL – With poor past performances at GP and only 1 Win at GPW, seems like she is up against it.
SHEZ A GREAT ONE -Lightly raced, switching to dirt, ice cold trainer and jockey, seems like an outsider.
BEAUTIFUL WIFE -Dropping from Stakes try on sloppy track, second off layoff today, gets lightest weight assignment yet. Looks like an overlay and I will be using.
SAVANNA ROXANNA – Probably running right where she belongs but needs to move forward off last race. Could be a key runner. Don’t take too short of a price though.
DRINKS ON ME -Ships in off maiden win, lightly raced, gets top jock, trainer has good numbers with this type. Will consider as a key.
MISS LOTUS FLOWER – I’ll let this one beat me. An outsider for sure.
SIERRA LEONA -Runs back at same level and distance with top jockey. Will be the one to beat. Don’t take too short a price.
Summary: This is looking like a pass to me. One of these other runners needs to improve off of really shaky past performances and I don’t feel confident backing 7 at a short price. Could be a good to use “All” in a pick three. (Subscribers will get my final wagers sent to their cell phone a few minutes before post)

Race 4. 5F T Md35k Claiming
DOMENIC – Has had too many chances and I don’t see the catalyst to move him up today.
TOWNIE – Showed speed last on dirt, lightly raced, could be part of the mix, would not take too short of odds.
STUN – Drops to lowest level yet, icy trainer, too many tries, seems like an outsider.
REPETITIOUS – Drops from tough NY Maiden Specials and picks up leading rider, is the one to beat on the drop down. Odds will be short.
PUT THE HAT BACK – An outsider trying turf for first time after low speed figure dirt tries.
COPPER VESSEL -second attempt today and showed speed last time. Can be the upset. Don’t take less than 5-1 odds.
ASKED AND ANSWERED – Another with early speed and this one drops to claiming level for first time. Gets aggressive jock who needs a perfect trip this time.
Summary: On paper you need to use 4,6,7 but I could see 2 and 3 getting in the mix. Depending on Post time odds I’ll look to find a key horse and maybe use others in Doubles. I don’t like one of these more than another at this moment. (Subscribers will get my final wagers sent to their cell phone a few minutes before post)

Race 5. 7.5F T Claiming 35k
BLACKJACK BABY – Is 4/11 here but those wins came shorter at 5f. Would need to run his very best to win today. 10-1 ML seems about right, will probably drift higher.
ROYAL BLESSING – Picks up Castellano and cuts back in distance off Stakes attempt last out. Horse wins from off pace and has the right jockey for this style. Don’t take too short of a price.
RUNAWAY POSSE – Gets class relief and has steady speed figures. Tries GP for the first time and picks up the hot Gaffalione. Could come through but would like 5-1 or more.
ADVENTIST – First off the claim for Gullo and seems to be at the right level. Gets a new rider and will be competitive with this group.
MY POINT EXACTLY – Just missed two stakes wins last summer here at GP. Gets Jose Ortiz and will be going strong from the bell. My problem is that the recent two times he got class relief he didn’t run so well. This is a bigger class drop today and it’s now or never for this one. Won at this same level with Ortiz last February.
TWO STEP TIME – Another dropping to lowest level with a tag today. Gets leading rider and will need everything to go right today. Usually runs longer, needs to be close off pace and make a strong run. Wouldn’t take too short of a price.
CREAKY CRICKET – An outsider stepping up in class of a placing at 16k. No thanks.
SMALL FORTUNE – Another with early speed but I don’t see him around at the wire.
Summary: This race is looking very tough. It’s hard to say who I will Key. I think 6 could be come favorite by post time. I’m a little interested in 1 and 3. 1 will be stretching out and this could set up nice for him if he is close to the pace. 3 has never run here and has strong turf figures with aggressive jock. I’ll look to get 1 and 3 in the mix today at a price.