Kentucky Oaks Day 5-4-18 ChurchillDowns
Churchill Downs
Kentucky Oaks Day
5/4/2018
Race 1. In the opener there seems to be a lot of evenly matched horses. 6 is the Morning Line favorite because she has the best recent Beyer Figs. Four of the six fillies have one on or just off the lead. These fillies will be running fast from the bell. I will be using 4 & 6. Even though 4 SHESPRETTYLUCKY the daughter of Looking at Lucky hasn’t won at this distance, she’s going back to the dirt and won her first race at seven furlongs. She is also getting class relief coming down from graded stakes races. Jose Ortiz may put her on the lead and go a long way. 6 GOGOOGLEYOURSELF has the best late running style. If the other fillies battle from the bell, this race will set up nicely for 6 to win from off the pace.
Top Selections 4-6-5 Subscribers will get my constructed bets sent to their phone about 2-4 minutes before post time. Post time odds always determine my final bets.
Race 2. Passing. A wide open Maiden Race. I have no opinion and won’t begin to speculate who will do what. The possibilities are endless and I’d rather save my money. If playing doubles, pick 3’s or pick 5’s I would use ALL and double up on the favorites.
Race 3. Passing for the same reasons. Too difficult to construct exactas. On multi race tickets I would include 1,2,4,6,8,10.
Race 4. After reviewing all of the runners in this field, I think the early speed will come from the outside runners. I think the running style and the post positions of 1 & 2 help them. One horse I’m interested in is the lightly raced 6 COMPASS ZONE. We’ll see how far he wants to run. I will look to play some exacta boxes with 6 especially if I’m getting 10-1 odds on him. I’ll also be using 1 KEEP QUIET and 2 SUN LOVER. I think the extra 1/16 should benefit 2.
Top Selections 6-2-1 Subscribers will get my constructed bets sent to their phone about 2-4 minutes before post time. Post time odds always determine my final bets.
Race 5. The Eight Belles comes up tough. I think 1 AMY’S CHALLENGE is the horse to beat cutting back to 7F. The problem is she could be tested by 3 MIA MISCHIEF. Those two have the early speed. If 6 GAS STATION SUSHI can improve off her G3 Win and have pace to come into, she will be looking to have three straight wins and keep a perfect record. 5 TALK VEUVE TO ME is interesting and if she’s more than 8-1 I would use her in exacta boxes.
Top Selections 6-1-5 Subscribers will get my constructed bets sent to their phone about 2-4 minutes before post time. Post time odds always determine my final bets.
Race 6. I’m throwing out 8 MARTINI GLASS and will be using 1-3-6 only. 3 ABEL TASMAN has good recent works and is very consistent. If she can’t get the job done I’ll be looking to 1 SALTY and 6 TIGER MOTH to pick up the pieces. I like that Casse is bringing SALTY back to a route from 7F. TIGER MOTH will be coming from way back and will be hoping to close into a fast pace.
Top Picks 1-3-6 Subscribers will get my constructed bets sent to their phone about 2-4 minutes before post time. Post time odds always determine my final bets.
Race 7. I’m using two horses in this race. I’m taking a long shot and will be betting 4 RISER to Win & Place at what will hopefully be big odds. It’s a sneaky move to bring this miler and cut him back to 5F and put him on the grass. It’s possible he will like the grass and not look back.The other runner I like is 9 BUCCHERO who has run in some classy turf sprints and will be making his third start off the layoff. I’ll look to key him in exactas.
Top picks 4-9-10 Subscribers will get my constructed bets sent to their phone about 2-4 minutes before post time. Post time odds always determine my final bets.
Race 8. In this race I will use 1,3,5,8. Post time odds will determine how I make my bets. The one unknown is 4 BACKYARD HAVEN. This lightly raced Chad Brown horse may make some noise and I think needs to be included in the mix. There not one that stands out to me. Post time odds will determine how I bet this race and my subscribers will get my Picks text to them.
Race 9. I don’t like this race very much. It’s a Pass for me. Too many possibilities. Too many risks. I’ll save my money.
Race 10. 11-3-6-10. I’m not looking to bet against 11 RUSHING FALL but I will Key her in exacta boxes with 3,6,10 and play 11 over All in exactas and maybe trifectas. Post time odds will determine how I bet this race and my subscribers will get my Picks text to them.
Race 11. You could write about every horse in this race. My strategy is to use 5 & 13 which have late speed and key them in exactas with 3,10,11,14. A very tough race in which 10 & 14 who have nearly perfect race records will be tested to the limit.
Top Picks 5/13 keyed in exacta boxes with 3,10,11,14. Subscribers will get my Picks text to them.
I don’t have strong opinions about the last two races.
Race 12. Top Picks 1-4-10-8
Race 13. Top Picks 11-6-1-2
