Lake Placid & Alabama Stakes Preview by @SaratogaScotty1
Weekend of the Ladies – Lake Placid & Alabama; August 19, 2017
Well it was a brutal Week 4, to say the least, going O-fer on Top Picks, and 1 for 9 on Top 3 picks…if there is any silver lining, that 1 pick I had ITM for Graded Stakes races last weekend was the Saratoga Special winner, Silver Bullet…a $9 winner at that. Hopefully some of you cashed on that tip, because SaratogaScotty DEFINITELY didn’t. Week 5 is a new page though, and I have turned last week’s page. If you believe in biases, there is definitely a handicapping bias for me during even weeks! So with that said, I’m ready to take down the lightest weeks of Graded Stakes races this meet, with only two – the G2-Lake Placid and the G1-Alabama; both for 3yo fillies. I’m losing daylight on cashing out with respectable numbers this meet during Graded Stakes, but I’ve been onto these fillies all year so far, and intend on doing the same this weekend! As always though, my updated stats for Graded Stakes races at Saratoga, this meet, are below.
Through Friday, August 18th: Graded Stakes Races Only @ Saratoga
(*Shuvee Stakes had three (3) runners, with WIN bets only. TOP PICK ONLY)
Top Picks à 5 for 18 (28%) / 11 for 18 ITM (61%)
Top 3 Picks à 24 for 52 ITM (46%)
BETTING SEQUENCE: $2 TOP PICK Wn/Plc and $2 ExBox w/ TOP 3 PICKS = $16 total each race
TOP PICKS:Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4
Money Spent: $78.00$20.00$28.00$16.00$12.00
Money Won: $62.90$27.30$3.30$35.10$0.00
TOP PICK ROI: $0.81$1.36$0.11$2.20$0.00
OVERALL:
Money Spent = $274.00
Money Won = $186.70
OVERALL ROI: $0.68
The Grade 2 Lake Placid goes off in Race 8 on Saturday’s 10-race card, and is the start of a Graded Stakes Daily Double! This is a 1-1/8 Mile trip around the Mellon Turf course, for 3yo fillies, and is a loaded 6-horse field. Multiple Graded Stakes Winner, #3-LA CORONEL is likely the class of this race with three Grade 3 victories (1 as 2yo and 2 as 3yo), but is coming off a disappointing trip to Ascot, in the G1-Coronation Stakes. Florent Geroux keeps the mount for an 8th straight, after breaking her maiden right here on this Mellon course last September. She hasn’t raced this distance before, but she takes a bit to get into her full stride down the lane, and most likely will appreciate the added distance. Speed figs are right there with the best, and the 9:4-1-0 lifetime running line tells me that she knows how to win. Has a 2-race win streak on US soil, and should be there at the wire for a piece of the $300,000 pie! There is no doubt #4-PROCTOR’S LEDGE likes the 1-1/8 distance, as she’s 1 of 2 in this group to win at the distance, and sports a 402 Tomlinson fig at it – anything above 370 on that scale is a solid #, so seeing 400+ brings smiles to my face; a proven 2:1-1-0 line adds reassurance for this guy. Her lifetime speed figures have been on the climb since Race 1 back in November of ‘16, culminating in a top speed fig LTO of 91. Oh yeah, that was thrown up while winning the Grade 3 Lake George, right her on Opening Day! Keeps Castellano, and Brendan Walsh is one of my favorites. Spots his horses well all the time, but having a strong meet at Saratoga this year; expecting bigger things to come; maybe today! My TOP PICK however, is the Chad Brown shipper, #6-UNI. This girl ran 3rd LTO behind New Money Honey – who just so happens to be a MG1SW on turf, and running in the G1-Alabama next race. But if you really watch this race, and in particular Uni, Irad lets this entire race unfold in front of them, while saving ALL the ground on the inside…she cut the corner like a 5yo veteran, but unfortunately ran into some traffic issues at the top of the stretch. A strong ride to navigate through horses by Irad, I think with a clear lane to run at in the Belmont Oaks, and she is closer to New Money Honey and having a bigger say in that outcome. Gets a lighter field in this one, and breaks from the outside in a much smaller field, so Irad should have her sitting perfect turning for home. With the smaller field, the clear lane will be there, and we’ll be cashing! The #2-Party Boat, for Graham Motion, is another horse that intrigues me here, and appears to be in nice form. Only one work since the her G3-Lake George placing though, has me thinking that effort took a bit more out of her that some others here; can’t forget. No real speed in here, so this could be 5-6 horses all coming down the lane together! G2-Lake Placid Picks: #6 – #4 – #3.
The feature race of Week 5 is the Grade 1 Alabama for 3yo fillies, going 1-1/4 Miles on the main track. This is a tough distance to get at 3yo, and of the 9 horses entered, only 2 have ever run this long before. The #2-HOLY HELENA is one of those horses, and she ships in from Woodbine for Jimmy Jerkens, and lures Johnny V for the ride. She was a winner LTO at this 1-1/4 Mile distance, so you know she can get it. The kicker is, that one was on the Woodbine All-Weather track. This filly does have dirt routing in her pedigree, and broke her maiden on the dirt at Belmont going a 1-1/6 back on my birthday in May. Come to see it, she is undefeated in routes (3:3-0-0), and sired by Ghostzapper – winner of BC Classic at 1-1/4. She has won three straight. Increasing lifetime speed figs, check. Increasing lifetime distance, check. Jockey upgrade, check. Hot trainer and jockey combo, check! This is a BIG jump in class, but the numbers, tactical speed, handicapping angles, AND pedigree tell me this one is for real…and ready. Must include; Woodbine shippers have won big ones so far this meet…CAN’T be discounted. The #1-New Money Honey is the other filly in here to go 1-1/4 Miles, but like Holy Helena, that trip wasn’t on the turf either! New Money Honey makes her first start on dirt for the Chad Brown barn, but this girl was entered in the BC Juvenile Filly Turf AND Dirt races, and she has been working well on the main track in preparation for this spot, and connections feel strong enough about entering. Was nominated for the Lake Placid too, but would have walked away with easy money. Instead, steps up to the dirt-y girls, and looks to make a name for herself on the dirt. Everyone escapes Abel Tasman, as she stays out West after winning a few Grade 1’s on the NYRA circuit already this year, but this is still a TOUGH field for her FIRST start on dirt. She’s been running similar splits in the mornings on dirt up in Saratoga, to what she was running on turf down at Belmont leading up to the Belmont Oaks Invitational win…hmmm, interesting. This girl is a MG1W, and must be respected; Chad Brown is eclipse winning trainer for a reason. With that said, connections see no downside to running here – win OR lose – so treading cautiously. #5-UNCHAINED MELODY, for Bryan Lynch, has the highest lifetime and LTO BSF, with a 100 flat. She only has four races under her belt, but has won both routes she’s raced (1-1/16 miles dx), and retains Joel Rosario for a second straight here. Bryan Lynch hasn’t had the Saratoga meet he was looking for so far (or up to his standards either), and this is no easy spot to turn it around in. It appears she likes the front end, and we’ve seen this dirt track be generous to early speed, so I expect to see Joel put her on the lead or just off the lead from the get-go. She’s been working nicely since returning to the tab in the late July, and had a sharp work from the gate last Friday in prep for this one; what better way to prepare than to get an actual start from the gate in; right!? I do question the distance, but as I watch the Mother Goose for a 5th straight time, the splits were crazy fast – with Unchained Melody on the lead from the start – and she finishes with gas in the tank…whether it’s enough for another furlong, with this group, remains to be seen, but must be taken seriously here. Bill Mott has two entries in this one, and I have to say, I like them both. Tough to ignore the bullet work, after bullet work, after bullet work, after bullet work…you get the point, for #4-LOCKDOWN, my TOP PICK for the G1-Alabama. This girl has done nothing but fire off five straight bullet workouts, after her 2nd place finish behind Unchained Melody LTO in the mother Goose. She stumbled pretty badly before getting squeezed out at the break, so you know Manny Franco is going to look to have her closer to the pace in here. It is interesting to see Jose Ortiz jump ship for Mott’s other entry, #7-Elate, who finished 2nd to Able Tasman in the CCA Oaks earlier this meet – in what arguably could have been overturned to Elate’s favor. If you haven’t seen that stretch run, do yourself a favor, and pull it up on YouTube. Mike Smith fashioned some good ‘ole fashioned intimidation on the stretch drive, in what appeared to slow up Jose Ortiz and Elate; but the results stood. All I could think of was Cole Trickle in Days of Thunder, “Just a little rubbing Harry, and rubbing’s racing!”. I’m not sure if Jose rides both of these in the AM for Mott, but clearly the LTO jockey for both them likes Elate better right now. Kinda tough to argue with that, right? Another horse in here that you can’t forget about is #6-Salty, for Mark Casse. Casse has had a dismal meet, for his standards, and his girl finally escapes Abel Tasman; who has beaten her in three straight, since back-to-back wins to start the career. Joel Rosario hops off for the #5, but Ty Gaffalione is no slouch! She just might not be able to win at this level, but she fired a bullet last weekend in preparation for this. Mark Casse has too strong a barn to be 6% winners at Saratoga. Sometimes that is the “luck”, or lack thereof, in horse racing, but I mean really!? His top 3yo, Classic Empire just shipped out of town with training problems/nagging injuries, so the barn could definitely use a big win! One angle I’m always interested in, is West Coast shippers coming east for the big ones. Listen, I get it, it’s a big G1 race with a nice purse, and BC entry….but, would you really ship a horse out if you didn’t think they had a legit shot!? Doug O’neil hasn’t had luck with his first two tries this meet, but 3rd time is a charm, right!? He has #8- Mopotism entered here, but Mario doesn’t ship east due to the big racing card at Del Mar, so I’m passing here. The other West Coast shipper, #3-It Tiz Well is an intriguing play however. She ships in for jerry Hollendorfer, and the jockey with the most success on her also ships in for his only mount of the day – Drayden Van Dryke. Last time I saw this happen, it was Robby Albarado in the Haskell, riding Girvin for his only start on the card; no need to explain further. She slips in here as a 12-1 ML, off a nice heavy favorite win in the G3-Delaware Oaks. And while this is certainly a step up, she has run against similar before; including a 3rd place finish in the G1-Santa Anita Oaks back in April; losing to Paradise Woods and Abel Tasman; neither of whom are entered in this one. She fired off a freakish 5f bullet back on August 3rd, and clearly had a nice maintenance work last Sunday that indicated all systems go for the connections. Speed figs are below the top in here, but this youngster is clearly on the improve, with a lifetime high BSF LTO…man, this race is tough! G1-ALABAMA PICKS: #4 – #5 – #2
Thank you for reading, and lets cash more tickets than we rip this weekend!
Good Luck!
@SaratogaScotty1
