Monmouth “Haskell” Analysis 7-30-17 by @SaratogaScotty1

“The War at The Shore” – Haskell Invitational – Sunday July 30, 2017

Boy, tough Week 2 of Graded Stakes at the Spa for this guy, as I’ve gone 0-5 so far with my TOP PICKS this week, and only have #2-Paid Up Subscriber left to keep me from striking out this week! While that certainly hurts the stats this meet, I hope you are still benefiting from seeing different angles to look at when handicapping these races, and either reassuring, or questioning, your own handicapping. I’m not going to change any strategies here, and I promise there are a lot of Graded Stakes races left at Saratoga this Summer! The work continues, and I’m ready to roll up the sleeves! Updated stats are below, before I give my thoughts on Monmouth Park’s Haskell Invitational Graded Stakes races – at The Shore’s Greatest Stretch! Hopefully I’ll see you there and don’t forget to follow me on Twitter – @SaratogaScotty1.

BETTING SEQUENCE: $2 TOP PICK Wn/Plc and $2 ExBox w/ TOP 3 PICKS = $16 total each race

Through Saturday, July, 29th: Graded Stakes Races Only @ Saratoga
Top Picks à 2 for 10 (20%) / 5 for 10 ITM (50%)
Top 3 Picks à 14 for 30 ITM (47%)
Money Spent = $160.00
Money Won = $120.00
ROI: (- 25%)

There are six stakes races out of FOURTEEN total races on Sunday’s race card at Monmouth Park; five of which are Graded Stakes, including the Grade 1 Haskell – a Breeders Cup Challenge Race; Win and You’re In, for the $6 Million Breeder’s Cup Classic on November 4th, 2017 at Del Mar. I’ll share my thoughts on these five Graded Stakes Races, and hopefully provide some good insight about a track I am quite familiar with. No stakes race has a field larger than eight runners, and we have some hometown favorites, as well as big name shippers, all competing for more than $1.5 Million in total purse money in stakes races alone! That is some feat, considering Monmouth Park receives $0 in gambling revenues from Atlantic City and a lack of government– which keep many neighboring states racing programs thriving – limit the Monmouth Park racing week to just three days/week, to keep things competitive – Friday through Sunday are race days; unless there is a national holiday on a Monday, then it’s Saturday to Monday! I could go on for an entire story about this, and I actually will for an upcoming blog post, but let me get back to my thoughts on Haskell Day 2017. We have an impressive string of Graded Stakes on the card today, and a number of top flight jockeys ship to Monmouth to get in on the action. Joel Rosario, Javier Castellano, Rajiv Maragh, Robby Albarado, Brian Hernandez, Flavien Prat, Eric Cancel and Edgar Prado to name a few! Most are riding in the stakes races only, but JJ Castellano has scooped up 9 of 14 mounts today; O/U on JJ winning 3 races today!?? A lot of top flight trainers have their horses entered on the Haskell undercard, or even the Haskell, as well. A few of the top NYRA trainers like Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher keep small strings of horses down here during the Summer, but it’s safe to say most of the “shippers” are bringing in their top guns on this race day! Chad brown, Tood Pletcher, Kiaran McLaughlin, Ray Handal, Jerry Hollendorfer, Brian Lynch, Shug McGaughey, Graham Motion, Joe Sharp, Ian Wilkes and Brendon Walsh, amongst others! Now this is a stacked lineup, and I am excited to see New Jersey in the thoroughbred racing spotlight for the day. Wagering pools should be large on this Haskell Day, because Monmouth Park plans this perfectly – to be showcased on a Sunday, after all the Saturday cards from more prestigious tracks are over, and NJ Thoroughbred racing can shine!

The first Graded Stakes of the day comes in RACE 3, with the Grade 3 Monmouth Cup Stakes – a 1 1/16 mile main track route, for 3yo+. A short field of five runners, there is no shortage of speed here though! It’s the longest distance all but one of them has seen so far in the calendar year, and because of the hot pace that is likely to be set from the start, I’m looking for the outside draw, and only true router in this race, the #5-Scuba. As I pointed out to readers in my Opening Day post for Saratoga, Brendan Walsh is an under-the-radar trainer who spots his runners well. I happened to pick his horse on top in the Lake George that day – paying $16.40 – and I’m looking for some nice odds today too. Had a similar setup leading into this race last year, so you know connections had their sights set on coming back her today. While the 6yo gelding, by Tapit, hasn’t shown much in his first three starts of the year, LTO was clearly a prep for this one, and the blinkers go back on today to get him re-focused. He’s actually used to much longer than the distance he sees today, so expect Flavien Prat to have him closer to the pace than normal. Make no mistake; he can hang with these horses, despite the recent speed figures. The #4-Sharp Azteca is out of the Jorge Navarro barn, and while I can’t stand the guy (and his straight brim Yankees hat in winners circle photos!), he proved on Saturday up in Saratoga that he can train them for the big wins. Winning the Grade 1 Vanderbilt up in Saratoga yesterday via an impressive wire-to-wire victory with El Deal, Jorge sports a ridiculous 44% winning percentage this summer at Monmouth Park; home field advantage?? This one looks as freakishly fast as El Deal, but I’m thinking there is enough other speed in here that will set things up for a closer at this 8.5f dx. That last 1/16th of a mile can be killer with a freakish pace on the front end. The #3-Donegal Moon is a Todd Pletcher entry, and another runner that does his best work coming off the pace. Pletcher has not been very good with his horses at Monmouth this summer, but has been hot up at Saratoga, and JJ Castellano is in town for the Haskell; the last time he came into town this Summer, he went 3:2-0-1 in the three races he ran; don’t dismiss. RACE 3 PICKS: #5-#3-#4

A few interesting betting races leading up the next Graded Stakes race, and I’ll try to tweet out some ‘SCOTT-PLAYS’ during the day, depending on how the tote board is playing – make sure to follow me @SaratogaScotty1.

RACE 7 is the Grade 2 Monmouth Stakes – a 1 1/8 mile foray around the turf course, for 3yo+. A nice mix of six runners in this one, including Irish War Cry’s half-brother #4-Irish Strait (same owner/trainer too!). This guy likes the Monmouth track (5:3-0-2), was a GIII winner LTO right here in the G3 Red Bank Stakes back in May, and has been working consistently down at Fair Hill; presumably for this race as the owner/breeder is a Haskell daughter, and a successful day today would have to be the ultimate for her; must include. I have this feeling that Graham Motion is looking to have himself a banner day today at Monmouth Park, and it all starts in Race 7 him – where he rolls out 2 of his 6 runners today! 3 of 6 entries are all siblings and NJ breds, including the Haskell ML Favorite, Irish War Cry; now that is pretty cool! He has some skilled runners entered, and has likely been spotting this arsenal for these stakes since IWC won the Wood Memorial in April! The class of this race however belongs to #2-Money Multiplier for Chad Brown/Klaravich Stables. While he hasn’t run since last November, this horse wins when fresh, including a first out winner, so no concerns with the layoff. Doesn’t even need to run his best race to be involved here, and when you’re last three races included Flintshire, it’s safe to say he’ll enjoy the class relief. JJ getting the mount is just reassurance that Chad wants to have a big day himself. My last inclusion for my Top 3 will have to be the lone millionaire in this race, and oldest runner, #3-Kharafa. Gets “Jersey Joe” Bravo for this one, and while he might be getting old, he still owns this track in the big ones. Likely takes a few races at 8yo to get back into racing form, and after three races so far this year, against some tough competition no-less, this one can’t be dismissed. RACE 7 PICKS: #2-#4-#3 ***The #1-Bolting is the other Graham Motion entry in here, who has been working with the #4-Irish Strait in the mornings the past month. Had a tough break in his only start stateside back in June, before fading to last by over 10 lengths. Line chart from that race indicates this one has talent (is a War Front homebred; for $250,000 stud fee!), but really hasn’t accomplished much in France for first three years, and now in the hands of a top flight operation; keeping an eye on this one on the tote board, as clearly Graham thinks this one fits***

RACE 10 is the Grade 3 Molly Pitcher Stakes – 1 1/16 mile main track route for F&M 3yo+. It’s interesting to see the #2-Carrumba, for Shug McGaughey, who has been training up in Saratoga but finds herself shipping down to Monmouth for this one (plenty of Graded stakes up there, and Shug hasn’t found his way to the winners circle very often so far up there). Top Flight connections here, so I’m not going to question it, and judging by Shug’s 5:2-0-0 record at Monmouth this Summer, he spots his horses well down here! Has run into some loaded Graded Stakes races in her first four this year, and while this is no walk in the park, will certainly appreciate any relief she can get! Only time she has raced this distance was a 3rd place finish in the G1 Ogden Phipps last June – posting a 112 BSF finishing behind Cavorting and Forever Unbridled. The ability is there, and I’m a big fan of the local rider Nik Jaurez, who gets the mount. This kid is going to be a stud, and I’m sure will get his shot on some mounts up in Saratoga this summer. I’m going to take a shot in this one with a ML longshot, #7-Miss Inclusive. This 4yo filly was a first out winner down at Laurel late in her 2yo campaign, while throwing up a 95 BSF and beating a next out winner by 6 lengths! Shipped down to Florida, and ran into some tough horses during the winter Championship Meet at GP, and came up with a pair of lackluster 3rd place finishes in entry level allowances. Won her first two races after shipping up to Parx last year in the Spring, including the Parx Oaks, but has never really put it all together for connections. Bred to go long, she has fired off two nice races against older competition to kick off her 4yo campaign, and I’m taking a shot with the fact that she’s sitting on her biggest race yet; banking on a price here! The #6-Money’soncharlotte is a local horse for the Kelly Breen barn. No stranger to big victories, he is a 30% winner this meet at Monmouth, and appears to have this horse in the best shape she’s been in – winning a local $75k stakes race LTO on July 2nd. The fact that she hasn’t worked since that race is the cause for some concern, but it looks like the horse isn’t one for morning workouts, as the tab looks sporadic….even leading up to his last out stakes win! Let’s try to catch another price, as there are some big name trainers in this race….and Graham Motion doesn’t have one entered here! RACE 10 PICKS: #2 – #6 – #7

RACE 11 is the WinStar Matchmaker Stakes – a Grade 3 turf route for F&M 3yo+, going 1 1/8 mile. Now if there was any doubt about how badly Graham Motion wants to have a big Haskell Day this year, just know that he is unleashing Miss Temple City here, in her first start back in the US, since her lackluster performance in the Queen Anne Stakes (G1) at Royal Ascot in June. This is the third straight year she has shipped to Ascot, and the past two years she went straight to Saratoga once returning home…but not this year! A multiple Grade 1 winner, she is the class of this race by a longshot, and deserving of the 4-5 ML odds, however she has never won at this longer distance. She also hasn’t won first out after returning from Ascot before, but she fires when fresh, and has two nice workouts to close out July. Sagamore Farms is part owner in this one, and given their early success at Saratoga, I’m gonna bet this one with confidence. #3-War Flag is a Shug McGaughey trainee coming off an impressive victory in her first North American start right here on this course, going 1 1/16 mile. Would have won by a larger margin if the race was at this 9f distance we have today, and my man Nik Jaurez retains the mount for this one. Shug has had her up at Saratoga training, and she has been working great since rejoining the official tab back on July 2nd; connections clearly feel the need to ship her down here – likely to try and steal a nice Grade 3! This lightly raced 4yo was a G3 winner over in France, and has the Pedigree. Carrying a $250,000 stud fee for War Front/investment, this homebred from Allen Stable, Inc (Joseph Allen, breeder) could be special. An impressive 6:4-2-0 lifetime record, we’ll likely see this one up in Saratoga next out. Where there is a Graded Stakes race in the Tri State area, there is a good possibility that Chad Brown has a starter in it! In this one, my final Top 3 pick is the #1-Wekeela. A conditional $80k Aoc winner in her only race so far in her 5yo campaign, JJ retains the mount for a fourth straight that dates back to May of last year – which was only her second start in North America, after coming over from France. After three straight Grade 1 attempts to kick off her stateside racing career, Chad put her on the shelf in July of last year, until her allowance win back on June 11th; which happened to be Belmont Stakes weekend. The other four runners in this race look to be way outmatched, but I do have to acknowledge the fact that the #7-Judy’s Chance is 5 for 5 so far in 2017, including back-to-back 100+ BSF’s….RACE 11 PICKS: #2 – #3 – #1

The feature of this card is RACE 12, and the 50th running of the Betfair.com Haskell Invitational. This race has been nurtured by Bob Kulina and the Darby Development Team that has run Monmouth Park for all these years, and has become a staple race for the top 3yo’s each and every year! From American Pharaoh dominating this track and Haskell field in 2015, during his record breaking 3yo campaign, to Rachel Alexandra strutting her stuff against the boys back in 2009 when she ran away with it, this race just draws some of the best. And considering what happened in the G2 Jim Dandy yesterday up at Saratoga, I think it’s safe to say that this 3yo division is up for grabs heading into late summer! Can a familiar face take the Haskell to start to separate themselves from the rest, or will a new face shake things up even more?? I watched the replay of the Post-Position draw from Thursday and the follow up interviews with the trainers, and I’m going to have to make #3-Timeline my BEST BET of the day today. In the interview with Chad Brown, he mentioned that he has had the Haskell circled for this colt since his first-out maiden victory just four starts ago, in March. Probably worth noting too, that the 2nd place finisher from that maiden victory was a next out winner, and just placed second in the Jim Dandy, behind Good Samaritan – Giuseppe The Great. He’s also the only horse in the field to have experience at this track, and that was a going away victory by over 3+ lengths in the G3 Pegasus, June 18th. His line from that race reads “inside, ridden out”, but in actuality should read “lost a shoe mid race, wired the field, posted 111 BSF”. Throw in four consistent and calculated workouts since July 1st, culminating in a bullet 4f breeze on July 22nd, when he just had to get his nose in front of his stablemate, and racing partner that day, the #4-Practical Joke. I have no problem here betting a Chad Brown exacta, as he finished off the board in the Jim Dandy with Cloud Computing, and with what I thought was a sure fire winner! That’s why they race the races, and today is no different, so I’m not going with Practical Joke in here. I am going to ride the West Coast shipper in here, #2-Battle of Midway for Jerry Hollendorfer. When you cross out this horses Kentucky Derby, which was a gutsy 3rd place finish in what could have been labeled “slop”, you have a really nice upward trend in speed figures on fast tracks in his previous 4 races – a nice angle I look for, which tells me the horse is getting better with each race and not regressing. This Smart Strike colt has never finished out of the money is 6 career starts, and I’d imagine will be right there again in this one. Rounding out my top 3 in this feature is none other than Irish War Cry, and Mr. H. Graham Motion! While the story alone could be sold to Hollywood, IWC is a legitimate 3yo that just didn’t take to a tough surface in the Kentucky Derby, and ran his heart out in the Belmont only to get nailed late in the stretch by a fresh horse. Gets back to the 1 1/8 mile trip he exceled at in the Wood Memorial, and there is no doubt Graham Motion worked with this one a little extra to get him ready for this spot – would love to witness an IWC win here….for his connections, and the horse racing industry in the state of NJ – it needs a happy ending like this! HASKELL PICKS: #3 – #2 – #1

Good Luck!