Santa Anita Fall Meet- Opening Day by @Gio_Ponti24

Santa Anita Autumn Meet
September, 29 2017

Day 1 of the Santa Anita Autumn meet is upon up and brings us much closer to the coveted Breeders Cup races in November. With that in mind, it also creates new stories and headlines regarding the top contenders as they train towards that or they race into the stalls. Arrogate would be the main attraction for the breeders cup as he looks to make amend for two consecutive losses during the Del Mar summer meet. Bob Baffert has opted to train him up to the race and has brought him to Santa Anita to tighten the champion. Arrogate has responded with stellar workouts, however creating more doubt that he will take to the Del Mar surface. He appears to be a different animal on the Santa Anita dirt track than he is at Del Mar. I understand that the Breeders Cup is a prestigious race and that the public wants to see a rematch between Gun Runner and Arrogate and even Collected and Arrogate, but in my humble opinion I would opt out of the race, give him a prep race over Santa Anita then train him towards the Pegasus world cup instead. We know he likes the Gulfstream track and could go out with a bang regardless. If he loses November he may not have an opportunity to race in the Pegasus as the connections may opt to retire this champion. As it stands, he is not in my top three for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. We will continue to monitor the action and see what defections if any come up for the 2 day event. In the meantime, we have great action lined up for the autumn meet at the great race place. Friday kicks off the meet with the Eddie D Stakes (G3) going 6 ½ on the downhill turf course. It is a great race with a lot of value to be had with runners peaking at the right time and some looking to make a comeback to the winners circle and a slot into the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint G1. Unfortunately Eddie Delahoussaye, whom the race is named after, will not be present at the conclusion of the card to hand over the prize as he is in Louisiana recovering from some health issues. Be assured, however, that he will be watching the race closely and perhaps remembering some of his patented come from behind victories during the early 90’s. It should be a fun afternoon with 9 races scheduled to be run and large pools expected for the early pick-5 and late pick-4 ($300K Guaranteed) on opening day. Let’s see if we can start off the meet with some good winners and get some traction towards a big weekend that features the Awesome Again G1, Front Runner Stakes G1, Rodeo Drive Stakes G1, Zenyatta Stakes G1, Chandelier Stakes G1 and the Unzip Me Stakes on Saturday.
Race 1:
#6 Warren’s Fandango: It’s a difficult race to start the meet as several of the “top contenders” have sketchy records and suspect styles of running. With that said I am going with the Gutierrez charge. I like the steady progression of his beyer figures and since the addition of blinkers he has been able to close into the pace fairly well. LTO the race flow didn’t favor him but managed to close in and only lost by 2 lengths. Bejerano got to know him that time out and decides to stick around. Seems like a vote of confidence from a solid rider.
#9 Amazon Cry: I am on the fence with this colt. LTO he was given a solid tempo to run into and was unable to muster up a charge to overtake the leaders. He only lost by 1 length and encountered some minor traffic trouble so there is some lenience in the run. If Pereira can keep him in the clear without losing too much ground from the outside slot he could make his presence felt in the lane. Wouldn’t take too short a price on him though as the race flow doesn’t appear to be too quick again, unless the first time starters have some hidden lick to them.
Race 2:
#5 Saint Dermot: I am going to go for a minor upset in this race. The race flow appears to be swift which could boast well for this runner. I love that Gonzalez returns to the saddle as much of his success was under this jock. This gelding appears to have some affinity for the track as he has a record of 3-3-3 from 13 starts around this oval. Could be overlooked on the board.
#2 Freddies Deam: This runner will most likely be the overwhelming favorite as his 8/5 morning line indicates. He too has a solid record on the track (2-0-2 from 5 starts), but more importantly at the distance he has yet to fall off the board. Last time out he was unable to run down the winner as the chalk under similar conditions, but as previously mentioned the pace should be quicker with #1 Over Achiever, #3 Image of Joplin and #4 Seal Six looking to get the lead. A definite must use in this short field.
Race 3:
#2 Royal FJ: This is more a sentimental pick than a strong opinion so take it as you may. This gelding has faced the starting gate 100 times! His best days are certainly behind him, but he still has some fight in him and with a return to a track he likes he could perk up enough to take his photo one more time. Usual rider Pedroza comes along for the ride. If the inside horse, #5 Rough Passage and #6 Heir of Storm hook up as expected this guy may be in a prime position to overtake them turning for home and have just enough to hold off the morning line favorite Airfoil.
#6 Heir of Storm: Throw out the last race as he was facing much tougher and was running wide throughout. Prior to that he won with a good beyer number against better competition that he is facing today. If he can duplicate that effort he may be tough in this event. With speed signed on to his inside (5,1) would like him to sit just off the dueling leaders and make one run, but he hasn’t really shown he can do that just yet. Perhaps his class will see him through it all, but will bet cautiously in this spot, nonetheless one of the contenders.
Race 7:
#4 Mrs. Norris: This is a sleeper horse and will hopefully be overlooked based off her last effort. LTO finished a dull 5th without much of an excuse and was beaten by #2 Salsita. The key thing to that race is that this gal was 10 lengths behind throughout until the final 16th when Bejerano tried to get a run from her. Prat jumps on today and what I see is Prat guiding her to the rail to sit in the second flight just off the pace. If she can stay up close and not be left too far back she could make some noise. Take a look at the March 23rd race when she was 3 lengths behind in 5th. She lost to a good mare by 1 length. Hopefully Prat can give her that kind of ride as she will be a good price today.
#7 Lucy De: This is another runner with a frustrating record as she appears to have the talent just hasn’t been able to break through. Kent rode her LTO for the first time and she finished a fast closing second only beaten a neck. Love to see Kent return for the ride back and what is interesting is that Baltas has a “rabbit” in this race to juice up the tempo. Perhaps a tactic to get this gal some pace to chase.
Race 8:
#7 Holy Ghost: Isn’t this what the Desourmeaux brothers do best? Bring in 2 year olds that have had a few races under their belts to be ridden by Kent once they are ready for a top effort at a solid price? This colt sure fits the bill. His first two starts were during the summer meet at Del Mar and he was ridden by Gonzalez. First time out he faced St Patrick’s Day and Jungle Warefare, who will be the overwhelming favorite in this race, and raced an even 4th beaten 7 lengths. Next time out he was bet down like a good thing and again finished 4th. So the wise guy question would be: How is today going to be any different especially since Jungle Warefare lands in this event? The simple answer is Kent and distance. First two races were sprint races where babies are usually quick out of the blocks and the horses that develop much slower get left behind and don’t run to their abilities. This time out he will be going a route of ground, he’s had a few weeks since his last race and returns with Kent on for the ride. Hoping we can get 6-1 for his first try at SA and going long.
#1 Major Cabbie: There appears to be a lot of pace signed on for this event which should mean this guy has his work cut out, but Van Dyke is a patient rider that usually wins from off the pace so I can see this colt sitting chilly from his inside slot and making a “Mind that Bird” type of run in the late stages. There were some expectations first time out as he was being bet so there must be some talent for a colt that cost $260K. That 9/20 work going 6F is indication that he is feeling fairly well.
Race 9: Eddie D Stakes
#6 Forever Juanito: This race is full of speed going down the hill. With that said I will side with a horse that has good tactical speed but doesn’t need the lead. A major jock upgrade to note as Talamo signs on. Solid record on the hillside turfcourse, although most of his placings have been minor awards, today could be a breakthrough. This gelding has been facing some tough opponents like Calculator, Stormy Liberal and Hunt, but won’t face the likes of those here. Should sit a good trip behind the speed and if able to get clear sailing turning for home we may be able to see the patented left hand of Talamo urging this runner to a win.
#11 Mr. Roary: Being that this is the first day of the meet, I also expect a pick-6 carryover leading into the big weekend as mentioned above. What better way to do so than with an unexpected runner under a new rider to blow up the tote to finish the card. LTO this runner stopped to a walk. It was also a tougher event. Prior to that he finished a credible 3rd behind Hunt and Ashleluvssugar so there is definitely some foundation to work with. What attracted me to this runner is the fact that he shortens up to this distance for the first time in 17 starts and has a rabbit to his inside from the same barn (check out those works for Zarqa Star!!!). The stamina will be there for this runner turning for home when the pace setters start to slow down after blistering opening splits. Could very well be the cherry on the pick-6 carryover if able to steer clear and avoid losing too much ground from the outside.
#2 Tribalist: I can’t leave off this guy completely as I selected him during the Summer Meet at Del Mar (hopefully many of you followed along that day). We will get a shorter price on this runner this time out which is one of the reasons he is not my top pick or second pick, but the talent is there. He is making his second consecutive start hoping to obtain a berth into the BC. I suspect they will employ similar tactics as they did LTO as there is a lot of speed singed on, but must avoid getting blocked on the inside. Lightly raced gelding could be a monster. I have a feeling we haven’t seen his best.
The following are the way I will be structuring my plays for the day. Take from my selections, play as they are or toss, play to your preference and at your discretion.
Race 1: Win/Place #6
Race 2: Win/Place #5
Race 3: Win/Place #2
Race 5: Exacta Box- 3,4,9,2
Race 7: Exacta Box- 1,4,7,8
Race 8: Exacta Box- 1,6,7,9 (Leaving out Jungle Warfare)
Race 9: Exacta Box- 2,4,6,11
Pick-5:
6,9,2,4 with 2,5 with 2,6 with 5,7 with 4,9 ($32.00)
Late Pick-4:
All with 4,7 with 7,1 with 2,4,6,11 ($64)
4,6,7,8 with 4,7 with 7 with 2,4,6,11 ($16.00 BUDGET ticket)