Santa Anita Selections 10-5-17 by Gio_Ponti24

Santa Anita Autumn Meet
October 5, 2017
We start off a new week of racing at the Great Race Place with a Pick-6 carryover of $80,091. After new money is entered into the pool, I suspect that figure to grow to around $450-550K. Not a bad chunk of change on a Thursday afternoon if you ask me. After the first week of racing we have an emerging star in the 2 year old division in Bolt d’Oro as he crushed his opposition in his first attempt going around 2 turns. Now, before we all jump on the bandwagon and start heading to Las Vegas to place future wagers on this runner consider the opposition he was running against. There wasn’t much in terms of talent other than perhaps the second place finisher who were about 8 lengths behind. Perhaps Bolt d’Oro is a superstar; I mean I did select him during the Del Mar Meeting at better odds, but he has yet to face real opposition on the west coast. He was definitely impressive however. The one horse that truly impressed me during the weekend didn’t even win his race, but put forth a solid effort to stamp himself as a formidable foe come Breeders Cup weekend. The runner I am referring to is Midnight Storm who finished a gallant second behind Mubtaahij. Midnight Storm broke up in front and set fractions of: 23.20, :47.06, and 1:11.56 before being over taken by Mubtaahij in the final yards of the race. Midnight Storm was pressured throughout the race and was not able to get a breather in but fought off all runners other than the late charging Baffert runner. During the Breeders Cup he may not be respected and left alone on the lead which could lead to a major upset that afternoon. This is a horse to keep an eye out in the coming weeks leading up to the big dance. This weekend should be an exciting one as well as the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, a Win and you’re in challenge race, features the returns of Drefong and American Anthem for Bob Baffert. It should be a very quick race that perhaps will set up for a horse that hasn’t had much racing luck in recent starts in Kobe’s Back. It will be a scorcher this weekend, both on the track as well as weather wise. Let’s see if we can take advantage of the two days prior to the weekend to build some capital to dive in this weekend.
Our first day selections were fairly warm as we were able to get some fair valued horses to finish second behind some heavy favorites; Our first race second choice finished 2nd, our second race selections finished 2nd and 3rd, our third race selections finished 2nd, then in the seventh we finished off the board. The second choice given in the eighth race sprung the upset paying $20.40 to win and in the final race our second choice mounted a come from behind win to pay $47.60 for the win. Our top 4 in the race all finished 1-4 capping off a very solid start to our meet. Hopefully many of you followed along and included some of these horses in your selections. On the first day we bet $328(if you include both our budget Pick 4 and the more expensive) and won $377.60 creating a positive bankroll of $49.60. It may not seem as much, but those high valued runners like the 1 in the 8th and the 11 in the 9th hopefully helped in hitting the late pick-4 that paid over $9K, pick 3, or even the tri, super and late double which paid $418.20 for $2. At 1Minute2Post value is what we aim for, and finding those hard to see horses that blow up the tote just like they did on opening day. Keep on subscribing for last minute text suggestions and plays on runners that create some value! Let’s see if we can find some not so logical horses for this Pick-6 carryover to include.
Race 1:
#2 Knight’s Dream: We are going to start this day off with a big price. This race is a puzzle as these runners just can’t maintain good form. The pace is also muddled which creates more problems for the handicapper. Use as much coverage as possible on pick-5 or single and hope for the best. This runner drops in class after two dismal runs over the Del Mar sod. Brice Blanc was able to get to know the runner and perhaps will employ different tactics this time out. If he can go back to his April run over the Keeneland surface when he stayed close to the pace and held on gamely for the win he will be tough in this spot. They are big “If’s” but we should get paid handsomely if he is able to go through.
#8 He Could: This runner also offers great value at 8-1 on the morning line. Again, this horse comes into this event off of two horrible runs, however both of those races he lost by a little over 3 lengths. His best races however have come over this surface, at this distance and for this rider. Perhaps a return to this venue will perk him up.
Race 2:
#5 Psycho Dar: Fields of 2 year olds face off going 6 furlongs and I end up on a 3-1 choice. This gelding showed great professionalism first time out as he sat behind the speed and on the far turn inhaled the front runner and drew off by 2 in hand. This runner was flattered when the second place horse returned to win next time out. There doesn’t appear to be much in this race and this guy has already paid off his purchase price first time out so anything more will be a bonus.
#1 Utah Ute: The only reason I didn’t select this runner as my top choice is due to the fact that Pedroza didn’t retain the ride. Granted Bejerano appears to be an upgrade, but the first two races for this gelding were solid runs under Pedroza on the front end and then came the jock switch to Theriot in the Graduation Stakes where they tried different tactics and failed to fire. Theriot and Bejerano have similar ways of riding and if Rafael decides to once again sit off the face could face the same outcome as Theriot did. If he can stay close to the pace he can make his presence felt turning for home.
Race 3:
#7 Gato Dolce: It is now or never for this gelding. He is returning to his favorite track and shortening up to a sprint after a dull run going a route of ground. Last time he was seen on this surface he finished second beaten a neck and if he can reproduce that attempt then he can be tough. It is hard to love this guy as he has been burning a lot of money; however we should get better odds today to find out if he can break through.
#5 Southern Thunder: This gelding was well backed for his first attempt but bobbled at the start rushed up and lost all chance. He gets a solid jock upgrade to Pedroza who will hustle him out and a trainer upgrade to Jeff Mullins. Good to see him perk up on his last work out over this track. He may make amends at a bigger price second time out.
Race 4:
#2 Fly to Mars: I suspect that this race is going to be very quick and this gelding might get the right set up from just off the pace. He gets a major upgrade in Prat, a jockey that is very patient and usually gets the best out of his horses. He returns to Santa Anita after a few attempts at Del Mar where he failed to run a ste and Los Al where he finished second. Peter Miller is due to heat up and is known for good placement of his stock. Blinkers on for this attempt, could fly under the radar for a big upset.
#4 Gigantis: There doesn’t appear to be a lot of speed in this race so this runner’s early foot can be his advantage. Mike Smith takes the call as Pereira lands on the overwhelming favorite on the inside. This Bruce Headley charge may get loose on the lead and never look back.
Race 7:
#2 Mucho Chrome: This is a difficult race to decipher, but I land on this consistent gelding. Although he has been racing against lesser up north, he has had some success over the Santa Anita sod. It’s also very encouraging to see Gary Stevens jump aboard this runner for this attempt. He has been running over a route of ground which should fare well for him shortening up to this 6 ½ distance. If things get heated up front with expected front runner and favorite Mr. Vargas perhaps this runner can get the first jump on the deep closers.
#9 Cheekaboomboom: Deep closer will have to hope for clear sailing turning for home to have a say in the outcome. The two wins for this gelding have come under Prat, who returns to ride for this event. As mentioned above a quick pace is expected and if the speed comes back to the field this guy’s devastating late kick can catapult him to the front.
Race 8:
#13 Close to Midnight: runner that is dropping down and after a solid second should get a good pace to run at while staying clear. He will need to drop down and avoid getting swung really wide, but I expect Pedroza to lay close to the pace and pounce turning for home.
The following are the way I will be structuring my plays for the day. Take from my selections, play as they are or toss, play to your preference and at your discretion.
Race 1: Exacta Box: 2,7,8,10
Race 2: Win/Place: 5
Race 3: Exacta Box: 1,5,7,6
Race 4: Win/Place: 2 and Exacta Box: 1,2,4,6
Race 7: Exacta Box: 2,5,6,9
Race 8: Win/Place: 13 and Exacta Box: 13,4,10,9
Late Pick 4: $36
1,2,5,10 with 7,8,9 with 2,9 with 13,4,10