Saratoga Analysis Sat 7/29 & Sun 7/30 by @SaratogaScotty1

G1 Vanderbilt, G2 Jim Dandy, Amongst Others… – Saturday/Sunday, July 29th/30th, 2017

It was a tough beat for my TOP PICK in the only Graded Stakes race at Saratoga so far in Week 2, as Paulassilverlining proved her legitimacy in a hard fought battle to the wire. Needless to say, after winning 11 of 21 liftetime starts, including two G1’s, Paula knows exactly where the wire is AND what she needs to do to get there first! I did have her as my second pick, so all isn’t completely lost, right!? Anyway, plenty of Graded Stakes action this weekend up in Saratoga, highlighted by the Grade 2 Jim Dandy stakes for 3 yo – which includes a showdown between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners – Always Dreaming and Cloud Computing; Pletcher vs. Brown, respectively. Before I get into my thoughts on each graded stakes race though, below are my updated stats through Wednesday’s G2 Honorable Miss; the sixth graded stakes race of this meet. Make sure to follow me on Twitter – @SaratogaScotty1 – for updated thoughts the day of the race!

BETTING SEQUENCE: $2 TOP PICK Wn/Plc and $2 ExBox w/ TOP 3 PICKS = $16 total each race

Through Friday, July, 28th: Graded Stakes Races Only
Top Picks à 2 for 6 (33%) / 4 for 6 ITM (67%)
Top 3 Picks à 8 for 18 ITM (44%)
Money Spent = $96.00
Money Won = $120.00
ROI: 25% (NOT GUARANTEED, but guaranteed accurate!)

The first graded stakes of the weekend is in Race 5 on Saturday’s card, the G2-Amsterdam – a 6.5f main track affair, for 3yo’s. A field of only six runners, there is some young fire power from top connections entered here, with a few that appear to be in prime “Saratoga form”. The #1-Singing Bullet comes in for Dale Romans off a nice sloppy-track victory in his debut race of 2017. A winner first out as a 2yo, he got thrown to the wolves in the G1 Breeder’s Futurity at Keeneland next out – a troubled trip that resulted in a 6th place finish, by 10+ lengths (to Classic Empire and Lookin at Lee). Had a lackluster 2yo bow in a small stakes at CD October 30th, but once again ran into a Triple Crown horse in McCracken. Has come back to the work tab this spring with a renewed turn-of-foot, and should be even better on a non-sloppy track. 2 for 2 at this distance doesn’t hurt my opinion, and Dale Romans has a nice barn of 3yo’s this year; could be there! The #2-Coal Front is certainly highly regarded within the Pletcher Barn, and with good reason! A 6 ½ length blowout victory in his first career start at Keeneland in April, then came back with a 97 BSF in a 6f, entry level allowance win early June at CD; beating Patternrecognition – who just happened to be 2nd best in an opening day entry level allowance race to Takaful – who looked like legitimate Grade 1 contender while throwing up a 107 BSF! Needless to say, Coal Front beat a very good horse in Patternrecognition, LTO, and must be included. The #3-Mo Cash is my TOP PICK this race. A multiple stakes winner, and 2nd place finisher in the Grade 3 Carry Back Stakes LTO down at GP (losing by a neck in a game duel to the finish), this gelding is the class of the race. Gets a nice jockey upgrade to Jose Ortiz, and is 1 of 2 runners in this race to compete against older competition – and perform admirably; a tough feat for an inexperienced and young runner. Has never raced this specialized 6.5f distance before, but judging by the calls in each of his races, he’ll be right up front from the start. Increasing speed figs in each and every race leave me no doubt that this one is taking another step forward here; I’m just hoping Jose ensures that it’s a big enough step; let’s go! The connections of #4-Aquamarine had a 116-1 shot winner in the opener on Monday’s card, and they are no strangers to winner’s circles, so clearly they can’t be dismissed! Horse just missed being a Stakes Placed colt in his second career start back in February, in the G2 San Vincente, for former trainer Bob Baffert. Appears to be a nice sprinter, and after a failed ate! Might be a touch overmatched in this one, but capable of a minor share – especially with the jockey switch to Luis Saez. The #5-Excitations appears to be another that is clearly a 1-turn sprinter. Nearly a first-out winner as a 2yo – losing to a horse named Girvin by a head, after stalking the pace and dueling down the stretch; btw, Girvin is a 6-1 ML in Haskell on Sunday. Came back as a 3yo to an impressive maiden special weight win at 6f – stalking the pace into the turn, and pulling away to win by 2 ¾ lengths, going away. Stretched out to 1+ mile next out in an optional claimer, hanging around into the stretch, but ultimately fading to 3rd by over three lengths. Cutting back to a sprinting distance of 7f next out, the connections were rewarded with a hard fought win, and return to the winner’s circle in an N2L Allowance event. Connections likely still had their sights set on classic distances, because they stretched him back out in back-to-back Grade3 stakes at CD, only to beat just 2 of 18 runners combined, while getting beat by a combined 28 lengths – ouch! Safe to say he’ll be better placed when the wire comes around this time, as he should be forwardly placed with good early speed. Major jockey upgrade to the streaking JJ Castellano, means this one can’t be dismissed today. Rounding out this field is the #6-Toga Challenger for Rudy Rodriguez and Michael Dubb. Irad Ortiz gets the mount here, and this one needs a HOT pace up front, so he can pick up the pieces on his way to the wire. First-out winner with a $40k price tag attached, this one has beaten older company his last two, and might just be coming into form at the right time. Safe to say connections are going to hold onto this one now! Increaseing speed figs since his debut in January a definite plus, and although he’s jumping up in class, he likely belongs with this group; can’t forget! RACE 5 PICKS: #3-#2-#1

The only Grade 1 race of Week 2 is the 6f Vanderbilt, for 3yo+ on the main track – which subsequently kicks off three straight graded stakes on this 2nd Saturday of Saratoga 2017! This year’s rendition returns the defending champ, A.P. Indian, amongst other graded stakes winners. The #1-Spartiatis has been on the shelf since early May, and while he returned to consistent workouts in mid-June, there is nothing too special to write about. Won his last inside post draw, in the G3 Tom Fool Handicap on the inner dirt at the Big A (may it forever RIP!), but appears to run his best races over that surface. When racing form and workout form aren’t looking good, Scotty is passing! The #2-Awesome Banner is graded stakes placed, but has really only had a sniff. Never been out of the money at this 6f distance, he lost by a half-length to Whitmore and by a head to A.P. Indian two back. This horse loves to work in the mornings, and fired a 5f bullet last Saturday before shipping up to Toga. Maryland shipper should be respected here, and has been knocking on the door; possible upset. The #3-El Deal is from the Jorge Navarro barn, which I just can’t stand! I’d rather not bet this race, than bet his horses. Disgusts me that JJ takes the mount here, but I also realize that basically means this horse can win. Increasing speed figs since the end of last year, culminating in a lifetime best 102 BSF last start, means this horse is still improving (and likely on some wonder drugs too!). Hasn’t really been in this company before, but speed figures say he belongs; tough to ignore. The #4-A.P. Indian is the class of this race, and defending champion of the G1-Vanderbilt. Trainer Arnaud Delacour appears to have him primed for another big Saratoga meet, as he fired off a 100 BSF LTO getting beat at the wire by the Post Time favorite, Whitmore. He’ll likely be the one to beat here, and since he loves the distance and loves the track, I’m making #4-A.P. Indian my TOP PICK. The #5-Bird Song (not to be confused with Songbird!), is a MGSW, cutting back to the 6f distance for the first time in a year – when he won back-to-back 6f sprints in a CD MSW42K and then an entry level Allowance race right here at the Spa. Connections jumped him right up to the Kings Bishop following those two wins, but a troubled start ruined any hope in that one. Rebounded to finish ITM over his next 6 starts – 6:3-2-1; including a G2 & G3 victory! He was then blown out LTO in the G1 Stephen Foster, and just never really did anything on a fast track. Marylou Whitney Stables are in Saratoga to WIN, and I’d have to imagine this horse will be there when the wire hits; including. Before winning his 2017 debut back on June 18th on a muddy Belmont track, you’d have to go back to 2015 to find the #6-Ready for Rye in the Winner’s Circle….anywhere! Luis Saez retains the mount for a third straight, and he’s never been out of the money at this distance (5:2-2-1), but I’m siding with others in this one. The #7-Green Gratto might have the coolest story connected to him, as his owner/trainer, Gaston Grant, is a UPS driver by day, and small-barn horse trainer by early mornings and weekends! 7yo workhorse is a multiple graded stakes winner, including last year’s Grade 1 Carter Handicap, and will certainly appreciate the shorter trip in this one. Has quick, early speed, and if he can get loose here, he could be trouble. A lot of other speed entered here, so I don’t foresee that scenario unfolding, but rooting for him and connections regardless. The #8-Limousine Liberal might be in peak form for this one, as he is coming off three straight wins with three different jockeys. Connects back with Jose Ortiz today, who has arguably done the best work with him, while getting the win streak going with a Grade 2 win at CD back in early May. Had a very sharp breeze back at Keeneland last week before shipping to Saratoga, and appears to be ready to go; including. RACE 8 PICKS: #4-#8-#5

The ninth race on Saturday’s card, The Grade 2 Bowling Green – a 1-3/8 mile route on the inner turf for 4yo+ – looks to be a tough betting race with many of the seven horses entered appearing in top form. The #1-Bigger Picture will be heavily bet, as Michael Maker just has a knack for pulling off these longer turf routes, and Bigger Picture is no exception. A G1 winner LTO down at Monmouth, throwing up a 103 BSF while racing this exact distance, it’s tough to argue this gelding’s form. Love the connections here, and “Jersey Joe” Bravo retains the mount in a tough NYRA circuit; YAHTZEE! Has won 3 of 5 races at this distance, including a ½ length loss that would have made him 4 for 5 at the dx! Solid work last week when he arrived at the Spa should add reassurance. The #2- Frank Conversation is a West Coast shipper for Doug O’neill and Reddam Racing – no strangers to the winner’s circle! Regular rider ships in for the mount, and I’d have to imagine they are thinking about stealing this. Has never gone 1-3/8 mile before, but has indicated in his last two starts (1-1/8 and 1-1/4 mile) that some more distance might be a good thing. I have a feeling connections will look to send him from the start, and press the pace; intrigued, but not sold. The #3-Closing Bell got beat in the stretch by the #1 LTO in the G1 United Nations at Monmouth Park, and the Bill Mott trainee appears to be improving. Three straight turf races with longer distances and higher BSF figs (exacta of handicapping angles!) have me convinced Mott has this horse primed for the Spa! Jose Lezcano gets the follow up mount in this one as well, which I love seeing; including. The #4-Sadler’s Joy joined the graded stakes company to kick off his 4yo campaign, and really hasn’t don’t much wrong while compiling a 4:1-1-2 record in graded stakes company (including back-to-back G1 3rd place finishes). He has raced this distance before with some success, and given the recent company, have to respect. The hotter the pace the better, so the Doug O’neill shipper adds an interesting element for this lightly raced 4yo. JJ Castellano returns to the mount, which is likely a nice bonus for any backers here. Consistent works since the last race is a nice sign that runner exited that G1 placing in fine fashion; Scotty likey. #5-Hunter O’Reilly has been in graded company, and appears to appreciate more distance. Hasn’t run this 1-3/8 mile yet, but had nice showings in 1-1/2 mile turf starts to kick off 2017 – a win, and a 6th place finish by only 2 lengths in the G3 William McKnight Handicap down at GP – but I’ll be looking elsewhere here; pass. The #6-Hello Don Julio is a lightly raced 5yo gelding, (10:3-3-0 lifetime), that appears to be outmatched here, but lures HOF jockey Johnny V. I’m going to pass, but know that it wouldn’t be the first time Johnny V beat me! The outside post goes to the ML favorite, and Graham Motion trainee, #7-Ascend; and my TOP PICK. Coming off a highest, last out BSF of 104, in the G1 Manhattan victory, the horse is versatile. Has won three straight dating back to October of last year – winning by coming from WAY back, as well as stalking the pace and pouncing in the lane. Another one that hasn’t tested this distance, but handled the 1-1/4 Manhattan LTO, and Jose Ortiz knows how to get the best out of horses. Seeing how race could setup a few different ways, I really think this race will be more wide open then the post time tote board tells us… RACE 9 PICKS: #7-#3-#4

The final Graded Stakes race of Saturday’s card is Race 10, the featured G2 Jim Dandy Stakes – a 1-1/8 mile full lap, around the main track for 3yos. This is only a five horse field, but when you have the Kentucky Derby winner pitted against the Preakness winner, and breaking from the two inside posts, we probably don’t need any other horses to make this one interesting. Regardless, here’s my rundown of Saturday’s feature race the biggest race for 3yo classic runners (for one day) since the Triple Crown – with many of the other top 3yo males running in the Haskell at Monmouth Park on Sunday – also a Win & You’re In Breeder’s Cup Challenge Race for the BC Classic on November 4th, 2017 at Del Mar. Breaking from the inside post is #1-Always Dreaming, who got pounded on the rail last out in the Preakness, before fading to 8th – 14 lengths behind the winner, #2-Cloud Computing. #-Always Dreaming rattled off a 4-race win streak to start his 3yo compaign, culminating with the Run for The Roses. AD has been back on official work tab since 7/1, and has a nice bullet on the main track up here a couple back, before an impressive maintenance run on the Oklahoma Training Track last Saturday. ML favorite, but not convinced is the one to beat. The #2-Cloud Computing is Chad Brown’s first Triple Crown winner, and my TOP PICK in this race. Possibly appreciated the extra distance of the Preakness, but can’t help but point out that this horse had only three lifetime races, with one win, when he rated in the G1 PREAKNESS to grind out a photo finish against Classic Empire. He then proceeded to come back on the official work tab exactly four weeks after that gutsy victory, and cranked out six consistent AND impressive workouts leading up to this date. Could be, and likely will be, the Post Time favorite hear, but honestly I think we have just seen the start of Cloud Computing; and obviously Chad Brown is one of the best at continuing the upward trend with these horses; JJ has been heating up all week, and clearly looking to have his breakout party on this Saturday – let’s finish the Saturday graded stakes on a high note! #3-Guiseppe the Great is an interesting horse here, because his race lines indicate a horse that has some raw talent waiting to come together – and the connections are likely hoping (and praying?) this is the spot. As good as Nik Jaurez and Tyler Gaffalione are in the irons, Luis Saez is a definite upgrade here, but not sure that is all that is needed here. Increasing speed figures each and every race, the 1-1/8 mile will be his longest test yet, and not sure if that’s a good thing! Has been working nicely up in Saratoga since the Oklahoma Track opened, but have home field advantage with the blinkers coming off; possible minor piece. The #4-Pavel is the most intriguing horse in this short field, shipping in from California after a blowout career debut MSW55k win at Santa Anita on July 1st. He did throw up a 97 BSF in that win, and came back two weeks later with a couple consistent workouts, but they must mean business this with entry. An April foal, clearly he has been late to the party, but is he really in this class? Laoban was a maiden last year, and ran away with the Jim Dandy, so maybe this race is there for the taking, but I will always question this type of entry until they prove me wrong; so prove me wrong Pavel! The outside horse (which is subsequently like a middle post) is the #5-Good Samaritan, a Bill Mott trainee making his first visit into the dirt. Not sure if Mott feels this field is weak, or if he genuinely believes his horse is versatile, but an interesting spot to place this hose for his first dirt race. Can’t knock the connections, as WinStar and China Horse Club are no slouches, and he has clearly met his match with Oscar Performance on the Turf – losing to him in 3 of his last 4 races. I guess it’s worth a shot at a $600,000 purse, and a 5 horse field…that is a 20% chance of winning $360,000 by getting into the starting gate. Tough to argue those odds, but no thank you. RACE 10 PICKS: #2-#1-#3

The final Graded Stakes race of the weekend comes on Sunday, when the card opens up with the Grade 3 Shuvee – 1-1/8 mile full lap around the main track for F+M 3yo+. If you thought the Jim Dandy field of five was too much to handle, you might want to sit down because we have a 3-horse field in this one. No, three horses total; which basically means this race is just another stakes race next year. Not sure how a race can only attract three horses, up in Saratoga no less, but I guess owners/trainers don’t like money; gees! In any event, I will only be making a Top Pick this race, as I will not allow a three horse field to pad my handicapping stats! It’s not shocking that the #1-Apologynotaccepted is the 3-1 longshot of this race, as the speed figures aren’t up to par with the other two in here. Lightly raced 6yo mare, she started 2017 in a $25k Optional Claimer, before rattling off three convincing wins climbing the optional claiming ladder, before a second place showing in the Grade 2 Fleur De Lis Handicap; losing by just 1 ¾ lengths to MG1SW Forever Unbridled. Luis Saez means business this summer up in Saratoga, but the horse needs to step up in a big way here to take the prize; capable. The #2-Paid Up Subscriber is the 1-1 ML favorite, and another Chad Brown stakes entry! A MG1SP horse, she hasn’t won since last June, and gets an interesting jockey switch to John Velazquez for this one. New to Chad Brown’s barn since late last year, Chad tried to get her to take down a Grade 1 early, but just hasn’t broken through. I guess gets “class relief” in here. Likes to come from off the pace, and the other two prefer to have the lead, so I see an ideal setup for this one with a likely speed duel upfront. The #3-Terra Promessa is the youngest of the three, but likely the class of the race – with four graded stakes win under her belt, and second place finish behind Stellar Wind in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom back in April. Needs the lead, and had an impressive 7-length blowout victory last out at this 1-1/8 mile distance, and have to imagine she’ll be the one to catch. RACE 1 TOP PICK: #2-Paid Up Subscriber

Saratoga has six full days of racing each week through Labor Day. With 69 Stakes races, totaling nearly $19 million in purse money over the 40-day meet make sure to keep your browser tuned to 1MinuteToPost.com on a weekly basis, as we’ll be bringing you track insights, horse and trainer tips, full horse writeup on all Graded Stakes races, spot plays, and anything else that is Saratoga horse racing! Please make sure to follow me on Twitter – @SaratogaScotty1

Good Luck!

-SaratogaScotty