Saratoga CC Oaks Analysis 7-23-17 by @SaratogaScotty1
G1 CCA Oaks – July 23, 2017
I’m writing this Saturday morning, as I will be out of town, and unable to write up my thoughts on the Grade 1, The Coaching Club American Oaks, tomorrow morning. This is a classic Saratoga main track distance, as we’ll see most of the top-flight 3yo fillies take a full loop – 1-1/8 mile trip around the historic main track (that has actually been resurfaced for this 2017 meet, and is playing rather sluggish). It’s sure to be a doozy, and I will have to sneak in a way to watch it live, via the NYRANow app (amazing btw, if you haven’t already downloaded!). Anyway, onto my analysis…
A short field of 7, but that is what you are going to get with these types of races up at Saratoga. The #1-Elate beat 9 horse that are still maidens in her 2yo debut/bow last year, and has returned this year to lower speed figures, but increasing with each race – culminating in a return to her debut BSF of 88 in a last 50k stakes at Delaware Park back in mid-June. It was an impressive win, and she returned to the work tab less than two weeks later to a bullet 4f in :48 flat. Has been working consistently since on the Oklahoma training track, and may just be sitting on an upset at Spa…Jose Ortiz will ride the Bill Mott trainee, and these guys can win ‘em; Respect. The #2-Abel Tasman is the 8-5 ML favorite, and while I usually try to beat this play, it’s tough to argue her form. The Bob Baffert/China Horse Club filly has pretty much done nothing wrong since her 5th place finish (losing by 11+ lengths) debut at Delmar last August; and been even more impressive under the watch of Bob Baffert, after Simon Callaghan sent her out in the “wrong” silks – I can’t get into the story, or look up a link for you, but please Google it if you don’t know the story. She is 7-5-2-0 since her debut, including THREE G1 wins, 1 G1 Place and a G3 place. Mike Smith ships in from the left side of the country, and need I say more? She has won two straight G1’s – The Kentucky Oaks and Acorn…This is my TOP PICK. The #3 Daddys Lil Darling is a horse that Kenny McPeek has high hopes for. She hasn’t been her best so far this year, but then again, she also hasn’t been bad. She’s been right there in all the races, and she likes to give a big run late, so I love that Julien Leparoux is back on the mount – she lost the Kentucky Oaks to Abel Tasman by 1-1/4 lengths with Julien in the irons, so make no mistake about it, this is HUGE. I am expecting big things here for this lil girl; must include in multi race wagers, as far as I’m concerned. Has been working like a horse that wants to be in discussions for the 3yo filly of the year; can she get the right trip? #4-Corporate Queen hasn’t done a ton since her debut win back in January, and numbers have been all over. Would be shocked if she had anything to do with this race; auto toss in my book. The #5-Summer Luck has been sniffing this type of competition, but another Mark Casse entry here that I don’t think is ready for this; pass. #6-Berned is an interesting play, and from the Graham Motion barn – which I just can’t seem to get away from. Another one that has sniffed this completion, but also is new to the Graham Motion Barn as of December 10, 2016, and her two races this year have been her best yet! She was coming hard in the 1-1/6 G3 Delaware Oaks last out July 8th, and I have a feeling Graham thinks she is sitting on her biggest yet; and with the added distance, she just might be able to. Speed figs are a step below the best in here, but she appears to be one of those horses that just continues to get better; ya know, like will have a blowout 4 yo campaign if she stays healthy and her connections keep her racing. The outside draw for the CCA Oaks is the 3rd, uncoupled, Mark Casse entry, #7-Salty. Another one out of the Kentucky Oaks and Acorn, she is used to the top girls in this one. She lost by just a length to Abel Tasman in the Acorn last out, and has three solid works since that June 10th bout, that clearly have told them she is ready to go. Joel Rosario retains the mount, hard to ignore this one. RACE 10 PICKS: #2 – #3 – #6
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Best of Luck!
@SaratogaScotty1
