Saratoga Selections 9-2-17 by @SaratogaScotty1
Closing Saturday – September 2, 2017
The With Anticipation Stakes on Wednesday did not go as planned for this guy, as I had 1 of 3 even hit the board, and it was for only for 3rd place! My TOP PICk Evaluator sat a descent trip, but just had no kick in the stretch to really make up ground. The GP shipper, for the youngster Jonathan Thomas with Manny Franco up, really turned some heads with his closing kick, in traffic, to prevail by a couple lengths. No money for us, but we’ll turn the page as we have yet another HUGE day of Graded Stakes action from the Spaaaaa! Updated stats are below, and I’m still poised for a FLAT BET PROFIT for Graded Stakes races this meet; as per the betting structure below.
Through Friday, September 1st, 2017: Graded Stakes Races Only @ Saratoga
(*Shuvee Stakes had three (3) runners, with WIN bets only. TOP PICK ONLY)
Top Picks à 7 for 26 (27%) / 17 for 26 ITM (65%)
Top 3 Picks à 37 for 76 ITM (49%)
BETTING SEQUENCE: $2 TOP PICK Wn/Plc and $2 ExBox w/ TOP 3 PICKS = $16 total each race
TOP PICKS:
Money Spent: $118.00
Money Won: $112.20
TOP PICK ROI: $0.95
TOP 3:
Money Spent = $394.00
Money Won = $353.20
OVERALL ROI: $0.90
The Graded Stakes action on today’s card gets under way in Race 9, and takes us through the last four races (Note: All Graded Stakes Late P4!) of the day. Race 9 is the G3-Saranac, for 3yo’s, going 1-1/8 Miles on the Mellon Turf course. I’m taking some ML longshots in here, but I have a feeling they won’t be such juicy odds come post time. There are a couple speedsters in here, but the main speed is likely #5-Voodoo Song, for Linda Rice. This colt joined the Rice barn after Michael Hushion closed his barn doors at the end of the Belmont meet, and all he’s done is rattle off three straight victories up here at the Spa; two of which were four days apart during opening week! Clearly loves the Mellon Course up here, and have arguably the best turf rider in the country right now in Jose Lezcano in the reins. Big step up in class here, but Linda Rice has been placing her horse nicely down the stretch, and this one appears to be the real deal on the turf – a perfect 4 for 4 lifetime! I tried to play against the ML favorite LTO in the Hall of Fame Stakes, and he ended up nailing my top pick and exacta at the wire, so there is no chance I’m leaving him out of my Top 3 in this one! #4-BRICKS and MORTAR has a serious closing kick as they approach the wire, and as long as he’s close enough, his late speed kills. I never like betting chalk, especially if I see other potential options, but this one must be included on any/all tickets. I picked the #2-Yoshida as my second pick LTO in the Hall of Fame stakes, and while he seems to have come out of that race fine, I’m going to look to some other sleepers in here. #3-MASTER PLAN for Todd Pletcher is one of the longshots I like in here, and sits at 10-1 on the ML. Stats are not overwhelming, but has a nice improving line over his four Turf starts, and I just have a feeling he’s sitting on a big one. Connections shipped him to Dubai for the UAE Derby, where he didn’t disappoint coming in 3rd, but I’m assuming the travel took a bit out of him. Returned to the states for disappointing dirt effort, but got right back to the turf in his next two, Has some nice tactical speed, and we’re going to need a big performance, but Castellano is capable of that ride – albeit he’s been lousy as of late! My TOP PICK in here goes to the outside post, and #9-ROCKETRY for Jimmy Jerkens and Centennial Famrs. Already a winner up on the Mellon Turf course, the connections have been bringing this guy along slowly, and have big expectations for this guys. He is taking a step up in class on paper, but his numbers are right there. Retains Saratoga’s leading rider for his biggest race yet, and this guy isn’t going to disappoint! G3-SARANAC TOP 3: #9 – #4 – #3
Kicking off the second leg of the all stakes Pick 4, is the G1- Spinaway, for 2yo fillies, going 7f on the main track. We should see some of these girls in the Kentucky Oaks next spring, even though it’s a short field of only five! The G2- Adirondack winner, #4-PURE SILVER returns for this one, and is the only filly in this field to win more than just their maiden victory. That doesn’t mean the others aren’t capable, as anything can happen with 2yo’s, but having three victories under her belt, including a 9-length Graded Stakes win LTO – including highest BSF – it’s tough to argue. Because of this, Pure Silver is my TOP PICK to win the Spinaway Stakes. Both the #1-SEPARATION OF POWERS and #3-LADY IVANKA both had impressive maiden wins, winning by 12 and 8 lengths respectively, and they will be the next two to fill out my Top 3 picks. Likely going to be a chalky affair, but if I had to throw a longshot in there, it would be the #2-Obvious Two. Speed figures look dismal, but this filly has flashed some speed while showing she can win from off the pace, or even but in a bid coming from way back. That kind of versatility at 2yo is not common place, and the reason why I think this girl can get a minor piece of the pie. SPINAWAY TOP 3: #4 – #1 – #3; LONGSHOT: $20 Place bet on #2
The feature race of the the last Saturday of Saratoga 2017 is the G1-Woodward Stakes, for 3yo+, going 1-1/8 Miles on the main track. A Win & You’re In Breeder’s Cup event, we have another five horse field for a Grade 1 at Saratoga – has been the norm this year! #2-GUN RUNNER returns off his easy victory in the G1-Whitney four weeks ago, and will be my TOP PICK in this one. This guy seems to be getting better and better with old age, and there are no indications today won’t be another step forward. He runs into #1-NEOLITHIC again, who finished behind him in the Dubai World Cup by 5-lengths, but Neolithic might get some help in here today from stablemate #3-Rally Cry, who will undoubtedly show early speed to keep Gun Runner honest upfront. Neolithic is capable of sitting off further off the pace and making a big run, as evidenced LTO, but he’s going to need to close into a true champion in Gun Runnner; definitely capable, and don’t dismiss on top. #4-WAR STORY will close out my top 3 in here, as he gets a much friendlier post for this rematch with Gun Runner, breaking from the middle. He had the rail in the Whitney, and just doesn’t have the tactical speed to get setup from that post, against Grade 1 talent. Sitting outside of Gun Runner for this one should help, but only get a minor piece; no one is touching Gun Runner! WOODWARD TOP #: #2 – #1 – #4
The final leg of the Graded Stakes Pick 4 is the Grade 3 Glens Falls, going a 1-3/8 Miles on the Inner Turf course, for fillies and mares, 3yo+. A nice field of nine runners for this one, I’m going back to my Waya Stakes top pick and winner, #6-ESTECHADA. This 6yo looks to be improving every race since coming to the US, and Mike Puype ships her east yet again, because they know what they have! Hopefully she gets forgotten about again, and we get a bit of price on her – went off at 9-1 LTO. I am a big fan of #4-WAR FLAG for Shug McGaughey, and she is a 4yo that has two nice races stateside, and probably getting better. Lures Saratoga leading rider Jose Ortiz for this one, and should get a nice trip for a late run at the leaders. Closing out my top 3 in what is an evenly matched field is the #3-SUMMERSAULT for Mark Hennig. This barn can’t be happy with only 1 win this meet so far, and a big showing on closing weekend can turn things around for them. She had a troubled trip down the stretch in the Waya Stakes, but still was able to get back up for 3rd place, and I’d have to imagine takes a step forward today. The two inside posts belong to Graham Motion, and #2-Lottie is capable of taking this field. She has arguably the most mimprovement out of any since the start of this year, and that is always a good thing to see, especially with a 4yo; don’t dismiss. GLENS FALLS TOP 3: #6 – #4 – #3.
Thank you for reading, and let’s cash more tickets than we rip this weekend!
Good Luck!
@SaratogaScotty1
