Stakes Analysis – Adirondack, Four Star Dave, Saratoga Special. By @SaratogaScotty1
Four Star Dave Weekend; Saturday/Sunday, August 12-13 2017
This game of handicapping is very humbling, but you ultimately must have faith in your picks and means/methods for landing on those picks. Remember, you have a higher ROI in this game having a different opinion than the general public, and going against the betting odds. I changed nothing in my handicapping methodology from an abysmal Week 2, and went 2 for 4 with my TOP PICKS – including a $20 winner, with an ROI of $2.20!! – and had 8 of 12 Top 3 picks ITM for Week 3; including two Exactas and a $122 Trifecta in the G1 Test Stakes. I also won the Early Pick 5 on Friday, as well as the Gtd. $1. Mil. Pick 4 on Saturday to close out a nice weekend. Of course, handicapping the races is only part of the battle, with the main event being the actual bet. In Week 3, I happened to see those bets – and the racing luck from the racing Gods – fall in my favor. It’s a nice week to have, but nothing I can sit back on. My numbers still suck, and I know I can be better than this; and intend to prove that you do for the 2nd half of this meet. We have a lighter week of Graded Stakes action in Week 4, including the Grade 1 Four Star Dave, and two Graded sprint races for the babies – BIG prices and payout potentials in baby races! I will be at the Spa for my first of back-to-back long weekends, and will be providing live updates, via Twitter, throughout the weekend. Make sure to follow me on Twitter for updates – @SaratogaScotty1. Let’s continue to cash more tickets than we rip!
Through Friday, August 11th: Graded Stakes Races Only @ Saratoga
(*Shuvee Stakes had three (3) runners, with WIN bets only. TOP PICK ONLY)
Top Picks à 5 for 15 (33%) / 10 for 15 ITM (67%)
Top 3 Picks à 23 for 43 ITM (54%)
BETTING SEQUENCE: $2 TOP PICK Wn/Plc and $2 ExBox w/ TOP 3 PICKS = $16 total each race
TOP PICKS:Week 1Week 2Week3
Money Spent: $66.00$20.00$28.00$16.00
Money Won: $62.90$27.30$3.30$35.10
TOP PICK ROI: $0.95$1.36$0.11$2.20
OVERALL:
Money Spent = $226.00
Money Won = $186.70
OVERALL ROI: $0.83
The first Graded Stakes of the week comes in Race 4 of an 11-race Saturday card, the Grade 2 Adirondack – a 6-1/2 furlong dirt sprint for 2yo fillies. Todd Pletcher has two entered in this one, including #2-STAINLESS, who returns from her 3rd place showing in the G3-Schyulerville on Opening Day. Pletcher also sends out the #1-Pure Silver, and if I had to pick between the two of these (let’s face it, Pletcher will have at least one ITM…right!?), I’d have to go with Stainless. She wasn’t beating the winner on Opening Day, as Dream It Is was the real deal winning by almost 10 lengths. She did stay up for third in what was a jog to the finish line of remaining horses; so tough to really take much away from that finish. Buuut, when you dig a little deeper into her debut victory, three of those horses have come back to win (since May 29th, so within 2-3 races of that one…and for babies, that’s a LIVE RACE). One of them, the 2nd place finisher, was a next out winner who then just won a $100k Restricted Stakes down at GP; follow me? On top of this tid bit, she has worked well since the Schuylerville, and the connections wheel her right back for this one. A bit concerning that Johnny V hops off for the #1-Pure Silver instead, but Todd and Manny are no slouches – winning at a 21% clip over 105 races the past year – and Manny has been riding well recently. Could be a late scratch still, but I’m including for now! (If the #2 does scratch, I’ll insert the #1-Pure Silver into my Top 3). Sagamore Farm sends out two in this one as well, uncoupled, with the #5-PROPORTIONALITY and the #8-Southampton Way. Proportionality was an impressive debut winner LTO down at Laurel, and if the jockey could have switched leads any earlier in the stretch drive, she would have pulled away to win by 3-4 lengths. Gets Paco Lopez here, who is colder than cold, but with three impressive/consistent workouts since July 9th race, connections have to be thinking she’s sitting on a big one. Helps that they have placed their horses well so far this meet, and odds should in our favor as their other entry (same trainer) was a winner up here LTO on Opening Day; and has a more ideal outside post position. #6-LIMITED VIEW is another debut winner LTO/Maryland shipper, who is my TOP PICK to win the Adirondack. An impressive 57.95 winning time in her debut, 5f victory, she led every step of the way and looked impressive doing it, in what looks to be a hand ride – Prado might have lightly brought the whip out in the stretch, but this horse was all heart! Her stretch drive looked like a Graded Stakes winner – stay focused, and never drifted while driving through the wire. Edgar Prado doesn’t make the trip – something he has done for these connections this meet – but can’t argue with Kendrick Carmouche getting the call as he is an aggressive rider that will look to put this sally on the lead and have them come and get her! Should be well bet, but hoping she stays above 2-1! ADIRONDACK TOP PICKS: #6 – #2 – #5
The feature race on the Saturday card is the Grade 1 Four Star Dave, a 1 mile Inner Turf event for 3yo+. A short field of seven runners, including a MTO entrant and the 4yo filly, and my TOP PICK #4-Sassy Little Lila for Brad Cox Racing. She’s been in the exacta for 7 of 8 lifetime races, and the one outlier was her debut race, where she came in 6th (losing by less 2 lengths) in what looked like a 10 horse dash to the finish line coming to the wire! Since then she has been rock solid, winning three races and losing by a combined two lengths in the other four races; including two Grade 1’s! Yes, she faces boys for the first time today, and yes, some of their recent speed numbers are better than hers, but Lila has improving speed figures across her eight lifetime starts, and we haven’t seen the best of her. She’s been training great, and while she does like the lead, she has shown she can close from off of it; albeit at longer distances than 1 mile. You have to include the G1-Maker’s Mile winner #2-AMERICAN PATRIOT for Todd Pletcher. Pletcher has been heating up since a cold start to the meet up here, and this one got some time off before and after his LTO at Royal Ascot back on June 20th, for the G1-Queen Anne Stakes, so he should be fresh. It was a dismal showing overseas, but this one prefers firm turf, and you won’t get that over at Ascot! Last start in the US was the Maker’s Mile, where he closed from 3-lenghts off the pace to edge past the leaders at the wire, throwing up a 101 BSF. I suspect there will be a hot pace to this one with Sassy Little Lila, #1-Ballagh Rocks and #7-World Approval likely looking to get out front, and we’ll have to see how the turn is playing on Saturday, and whether closers can close, or if the speed is holding. It’s nice to see Ty Gaffalione up in the Spa on a non Monday/Wednesday, as he’s riding the #6-DISCO PARTNER for Christophe Clement. It likely doesn’t mean much in terms of any handicapping angles though, because he takes over for Irad on this mount, with the Ortiz brothers racing out of Arlington Saturday for a big Stakes day in Chicago! Why not take advantage of some big mounts in Saratoga while some of the main riders are away! This guy appears to have taken a step forward as a 5yo, for his new trainer, and is coming off back-to-back-to-back Stakes wins, including a 109 BSF in the G3-Jaipur Stakes while closing from way back to nail Green Mask at the wire two back. Now that becomes even more impressive because Green Mask just won the Troy Stakes up here last Sunday, in what could have been a Grade 1 race (and likely will be upgraded from listed to graded next year because of the field!). A must include for me on any multi race wagers. 4-STAR DAVE TOP PICKS: #4 – #2 – #6; insert the #1 if the #2 is Scratched.
The third, and final, Graded Stakes race of Week 4 is the Grade 2 Saratoga Special – a 6-1/2 furlong main track sprint for 2yo. This is the complement to the G2-Adirondack Stakes for the girls on Saturday, and brings in a field of 9 runners. #1-Bal Harbour is the only returning horse from the G3-Sanford Stakes on Opening Weekend, and with speed to her outside, the rail draw will be a tough assignment for him. #2-MO DIDDLEY was a debut winner at CD, coming from off the pace, and has been working lights out since arriving to Saratoga in mid-July. Gets Castellano in this one, for an ice cold Mark Casse Barn – could be the day he breaks through with a big one, but I’ll leave underneath for now! #3-Hollywood Star has top flight connections, and LTO jockey, Robbie Albarado, comes in for the mount…last time he came in for a single mount was on Girvin for the Haskell, and we all know how that ended! He can win the big ones, and this one will certainly benefit from a hot pace up front. #4-Barry Lee is for the red hot Sagamore Farms and trainer Horacio Depaz, and is coming off a very impressive debut win, while putting up the 3rd highest lifetime BSF amongst this group. Regular Sagamore rider Jose Ortiz takes the mount, and I’d have to imagine this one has a say in things. #5-Crea’s Bklyn Law is the most experienced of this group, with four races under his belt, but unlike the others, it took three races to break his maiden. With that said, he hasn’t been out of the money in a race yet, and there is something to be said for that at 2yo. The #6-Tempestad is another Todd Pletcher entry in here who beat the horse to his inside in his only start back in May. Connections are there, but an inconsistent work tab on a Pletcher horse is definitely cause for some concern. If I had to pick between the two Pletcher horses, I’d have to side with inside post, Bal Harbour. The #7-Vino is a NJ shipper for my man Kelly Breen, and is my TOP PICK for the Saratoga Special! This guy romped in the slop at first asking down in Monmouth, and has fired two nice and consistent workouts , and the connections are ready for their first win of the 2017 Saratoga meet. Breen is capable of winning the big ones, and arguably had the biggest Haskell Day on his home turf, winning 3 races on the day, including two stakes races. Down at GP in early July. #8-Diamond Oops has the highest lifetime BSF of this group, firing an 80 BSF LTO in a $100k stakes. This one can stalk the pace, and Luis Saez should have him sitting nicely turning for home, but last pick in here goes to the outside post, and #9-Copper Bullet. Irad Ortiz takes the mount from Florent, and increasing speed figs across three lifetime races tells me this one has the experience. Lone win was a blowout by 8 lengths, and has two placings against respectable fields. Didn’t rejoin the work tab almost 4 weeks, but has fired three consistent works since, culminating in a bullet workout on August 4th. SARATOGA SPECIAL TOP PICKS: #7 – #2 – #9
Good Luck!
Saratoga Scotty
@SaratogaScotty1
