Travers Day Selections by @SaratogaScotty1
Travers Day – August 26, 2017
It wasn’t a great week for my picks last week, but I did have the $20 Exacta in the Lake Placid – and wins are wins in this game, so I’m not complaining. A HUGE day of racing today, especially Graded Stakes races at Saratoga! With six straight Grade 1’s and a Grade 2 to anchor things, this is going to be quite the day! Weather looks to be nearly perfect, and let’s make some money today! Below are updated stats for the meet, and all Graded Stakes races at Saratoga.
Through Friday, August 25th: Graded Stakes Races Only @ Saratoga
(*Shuvee Stakes had three (3) runners, with WIN bets only. TOP PICK ONLY)
Top Picks à 5 for 18 (28%) / 11 for 18 ITM (61%)
Top 3 Picks à 24 for 52 ITM (46%)
BETTING SEQUENCE: $2 TOP PICK Wn/Plc and $2 ExBox w/ TOP 3 PICKS = $16 total each race
TOP PICKS:
Money Spent: $86.00
Money Won: $66.20
TOP PICK ROI: $0.77
OVERALL:
Money Spent = $298.00
Money Won = $205.90
OVERALL ROI: $0.69
Let’s get right into things with the 6th Race on this 13-Race card…yup, 13 races, the G1-Personal Ensign, for fillies and mares, 3 yo+, going 1-1/8 Miles on the Main Track for a $700,000 purse. The horse to beat here, and my TOP PICK, is the Queen B, #2-SONGBIRD. This 4yo filly has amassed over $4.5 million, with a career record of 14:13-1-0; her only blemish coming to the Hall of Famer Beholder, in last year’s Breeder’s Cup Distaff – a race a hit the Pick 4 on, for the tune of $2,300! Today though, I root for Songbird, as she is the only early speed in here, and will have her way on the front end; unless someone surprises us with their running style…which is very possible in a 5-horse field, where there is lone speed, and she’s the 2-5 favorite. Someone’s gonna have to go, or this will be a walk in the park for Songbird. #4-FOREVER UNBRIDLED, for Dallas Stewart, is the next best in here and quite honestly, if she can keep Songbird close, or someone else can keep her honest, she might just make a run at it. Forever Unbridled was closing on Beholder and Songbird in the BC Distaff last November, and this will be her 2nd off that layoff; after earning an easy 89 BSF in the G2-Fleur De Lis Hanicap back in June. BSF could have been much higher if Joel asked, but he was out for a Saturday stroll at Churchill that day, and there was no need push things. Beholder and Songbird were dueling hard, and undoubtedly tiring in that stretch drive, and I don’t see that duel setting up here, but she is the next best. Closing things out for me, I’m going to throw in the longshot, #1-Flora Dora underneath it all. She hasn’t won since January 2016, so tread lightly, but her running lines seems to be improving, and she draws ideally to just save ground to get a piece of the pie at the wire! Florent Geroux is no slouch, and earns these mounts in the big ones because he fights on to the finish. 3rd place is still a nice check with a $700,000 purse. Let’s cash early here! RACE 6 TOP 3 PICKS: 2 – 4 – 1. Not a great betting race, so maybe single Songbird in a Pick3, with some value in the 7th and 8th Races. P3: 2 / 1, 7 / 2, 8
The 7th Race kicks off the Pick 6, the G1-Balerina is 7 furlongs, for fillies and mares 3yo+. A stacked field of seven, #3-PAULASSILVERLINING is the proven speed, but the shipper from Gulfstream Park, #2-Curlin’s Approval flashed a 104 BSF LTO, which can only be matched by Paulassilverlining….back in February 2016. Paula comes into this one backing three straight wins for new trainer Chad Brown, including two G1’s and the G2-Honorable Miss earlier this meet. Her speed figures have a nice steady incline, and appear to indicate that she is getting back to her peak form for the new barn. Chad knows how to prepare them, and Saratoga’s current leading rider is in the irons; tough to knock that combo. Shockingly (insert sarcasm), Chad Brown has another Grade 1 winner entered here, with #5-Carina Mia. Interestingly, she is another new runner to Chad’s Barn, and scored in a restricted stakes race earlier this month on the main track, at this 7f distance. She drifted a bit in the stretch run of this race, and arguably impeding Going For Broke’s forward progress at one point; just something I noticed, and thought was a bit “green” looking, for a G1/MGSW. Something tells me Chad had this race in his sights once he got this Millionaire into his barn, but I’m looking to the #4-BY THE MOON to stalk a quick early pace set by the horses to her inside, and nail the leaders in the stretch run. She lost to Paula LTO up here on July 26th, but that was a 6f race, and By The Moon was coming hard; another furlong, and that race ends differently…just sayin’. I don’t love Rajiv Maragh in the mount, especially up here this meet, but the guy can ride, and he has been consistent with this filly so let’s get the job done! Closing out my TOP 3 for the G1-Balerina is a bit of a longshot with #7-HIGHWAY STAR. Trainer has been ice cold up here with 7 runners not even hitting the board, but today is the day they get a paycheck up here – jockey Angel Arroyo doesn’t get a ton of mounts on this circuit, so he’s going to make the most of a Grade 1 mount! Race 7 TOP 3 PICKS: #4 – #3 – #7
Moving onto the 8th Race, The G1-H. Allen Jerkens (formally the Kings Bishop), we have another 7f sprint, but this time for 3 year olds only. It is also the start of the ALL STAKES PICK 4, ending with the Travers Stakes. This is an impressive 9-horse field entered, including the Kentucky Derby hopeful, #1-PRACTICAL JOKE, who is not only undefeated at Saratoga (2:2-0-0), but also at this 7f sprinting distance (1:1-0-0). She has been stretching out since Day 1 (6f, 7f, 1M, 1-1/16, 1-1/8, 1-1/4…), and will almost certainly enjoy the cutback in distance for this one. I’m not sure anyone is beating the horse to his right, #2-TAKAFUL, who is my TOP PICK. I saw this colt run on Opening Day, and man was he impressive. Another one where the connections started stretching him out from Day 1, even though he threw up a 92 BSF FTO, while romping by 8+ lengths in a 6.5f sprint. It was downhill from there experimenting with routing, but after a 5-month layup at the farm, he came back to fire a 105 BSF, and light up the crowd on Opening Day with another 5+ length victory. Kiaran and Jose are 2 for 3 this meet with $5+ ROI, and I shied away from playing him opening day because his workouts were sporadic, and at times nonexistent…but clearly he’s a gamer, so I’m going to include here. LTO was against older horse, albeit an N1X Allowance, but get back into his age group here. The #7-Coal Front is another one coming off a big time effort right here in Saratoga, and this was a 105 BSF in winning the G2-Amsterdam back on July 29th. Has climbed the graduation ladder nicely (MSW > Allowance > Graded Stakes), but I think he’s going to struggle a bit with the added distance here. Has been losing the ground the previous two races, and I fear there is enough in here to expose his weakened – limited experience. With that said, this colt is capable! Bob Baffert has shipped in the #9-AMERICAN ANTHEM for this dance, and let’s be serious – the man means business when he comes to Saratoga…especially after American Pharaoh’s loss. When you toss out this ones two route races, you are left with a 4:3-1-0 record, with that one loss coming by neck – to Gormley…who is a MG1W, and Millionaire. ‘Nuff said. Race 8 TOP 3 PICKS: #2 – #9 – #1
Race 9 is the G1-Forego, for 3yo+, going 7 furlongs on the main track. While this race could very well end up a chalky finish, I’m going to try and beat the ML favorites with the #4-DIVINING ROD, for Arnaud Delacour – with Castellano in the saddle. I’m hoping this one gets forgotten about at the windows with the likes of #3-MIND YOUR BISCUITS and #10-DEFRONG, but Divining Rod is coming into his 2nd off a long layoff, after easing into things with a hand ridden 105 BSF LTO, in winning a $100k Stakes down at Laurel. It was a muddy track, but this 5yo horse still ran HIS race by stalking the pace and pouncing in the lane. His 14:5-3-5 career record is quite impressive, and even a bit misleading…as three of his loses have been by the margin of his neck, or even less. Mind Your Biscuits is a proven winner, and even a NY-Bred to boot! Been on a pretty nice run recently, this 4yo really has never run a bad race, and might even STILL BE IMPROVING. The highest BSF LTO of this group, Joel Rosario handles this horse very well, and has a 7:5-1-1 record to prove it. Horse has been working well, and consistently, so I’d have to imagine he’s ready to fire! Defrong had a tough outing LTO at Del Mar, and you can just go ahead and strike a line through that effort. With that, you are left with five straight 1st Place finishes, including a Breezing workout from the gate back on August 11th. Thishas fired fresh in the past will essentially be his first start since the Breeders Cup last November, but she Race 9 TOP 3 PICKS: #4 – #6 – #10.
The $1 Million G1-Sword Dancer is the 10th race on the card, and is a 1-1/2 trek around the inner turf for 3yo+. This is essentially another running of the G2-Bowling Green earlier this meet, with a few additions, and I am not really liking any horse that comes out of that race. #3-Sadler’s Joy was my top pick in that race, and I’m still now sure how he lost the race! In complete control coming down the lane, he folded and let the longshot, #4-Hunter O’Riley get by for the win, along with getting edged out by #2-Bigger Picture for 2nd. Castellano hops off Sadler’s Joy for this one, in favor of #5-MONEY MULTIPLIER – my TOP PICK; and Joe Bravo gets the boot from Bigger Picture, for Jose Ortiz. I’m assuming Castellano likes his chances with Money Multiplier, and Jose has been the regular rider for Bigger Picture, but I have to say, Joe bravo put in back-to-back impressive rides for the connections, only to get the boot! Florent Geroux keeps the mount on Hunter O’Riley, and he might be have a say in things, but I am putting the two Ireland shippers into my Top 3 Picks, with Money Multiplier. #3-ERUPT, and #7-IDAHO, come into this contest with a lot of clout, and some well-respected handicappers are all over Idaho. I don’t know much about the European horses, but I know that both are millionaires, Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore mean business when they come stateside (#7 Trainer/Jockey), and Erupt is a Grade 1 winner in North America already; winning the G1-Canadian International at Woodbine last October. He has also won 4 of his 5 lifetime wins at this distance, amassing over $1 million at the distance. Same can be said for Idaho, who rattles off a 7:2-1-2 running line at the distance. RACE 10 TOP 3 PICKS: #5 – #7 – #6
Yet another Grade 1 race in the 11th, but this time we have the featured race – The G1-Travers Stakes, for 3yo’s , at 1-1/4 Mile around the main track. This field has been touted as one of the strongest ever for this prestigious race, dubbed as the “Mid Summer Derby”, as it regularly brings in Triple Crown horses to run for the $1.25 Million purse. This year, we are treated with all three Classic winners, as #1-Cloud Computing (Preakness), #4-Tapwrit (Belmont), and #7-Always Dreaming are all entered. There is no shortage of star power with trainers and owners either, as Bob Baffert, Chad Brown, Todd Pletcher, Bill Mott, Doug O’Neill and Kiaran McLaughlin all have horses; for owners like Shadwell Stables, Reddam Racing, WinStar/China Horse Club, Gary & Mary West, and the always powerful Klaravich Stables. We’ve also got the G1-Haskell winner in the field, as well as the surprise G2-Jim Dandy winner; OHHHH BABBBY! I’m taking a shot here with what will likely be a price, and putting #11-GUNNEVERA on top as my TOP PICK. This Chestnut colt came on the scene HOT as a 2yo, winning the G2-Saratoga Special last year in impressive fashion (with a strong late surge down the stretch to pull past the leaders), and rang off some nice races in late winter/early spring this year, but then faded in the Floriday Derby, Kentucky Derby, and Preakness – her next three starts. She got the rest she deserved for being a youngster that got pushed pretty hard early, and came back to a hand-ride victory in a weak stakes race down at Gulfstream earlier this month. Clearly that was a prep race for the Travers, as connections have been eyeing this one, and her workouts since rejoining the morning work tab on July 1st (seems very calculated) have been nothing short of impressive. Let’s get a price, and let’s hope Edgar Zayas keeps him close enough early. This crop of 3yo males have been so inconsistent this year, so I can’t fault anyone for choosing any horse in this field, but I think it also means you can’t be afraid to like a horse at long odds. Both Girvin and #9-McCracken are both horses that I like because of their consistency with being ITM – their only blemishes being the Kentucky Derby (which is a tough one to knock them for). The Doug O’Neill shipper, #10-Irap, is another intriguing play, and one that has been lighting up the tote boards as a 3yo; breaking her Maiden in the Grade BlueGrass Stakes, against some horses in this field. I know Mario Gutierrez is the First Call rider for these connections, but Julien Leparoux is in town, and has arguably had the two best rides on him dating back to the Bluegrass win…it’s a weird game sometimes! Bob Baffert’s entry, #3-West Coast comes in off of three straight wins, including the Grade 3 Los Al Derby. He has a very nice increasing speed figure line, and has been stretching out in distance (and pulling away from the field late in races), but as my buddy Matt said – it’s tough to get behind a horse in this field who’s biggest win came at Los Alamitos race track…he’s got a point! Stanger things have happened in this race the past few years, but at what will likely be a short price, I can’t get involved. A horse I think must be included in #5-GOOD SAMARITAN. I love the connections – I’ve been onto China Horse Club since they started investing in the NA racing, and they have sent out some top quality runners the past few years. After continuing to improve after switching to dirt for the first time LTO, this Bill Mott trainee ran away from the field in the stretch of the Jim Dandy. He can handle the distance, as he just missed a placing in the G1-Belmont Derby, on turf, two back. Even still, he was coming late, and appeared to have more in the tank. Seeing that he transferred to dirt just fine LTO (more than JUST FINE), I see no reason not to include this horse on all tickets. Rounding out my Top 3 will be the Belmont winner, #4-TAPWRIT. He hasn’t run since the Belomnt, back on June 10th, but has been working very nicely in the mornings leading into this, and connections were set on this path from the start. Is going to need a pace to run into, but I think with Always Dreaming signed on, he’ll get that pace. TRAVERS TOP 3 PICKS: #11 – #5 – #4.
Closing out the Graded Stakes action for the day is the Grade 2 Ballston Spa; which oddly enough has a STRONG, Grade 1 field entered! This 1-1/6 Mile trip around the Mellon Turn Course is for fillies and mares 3yo+. Only six horse entered here, but man is this one a tough one to handicap. I have a feeling Chad Brown will be taking down the exacta in this one, with #1-LADY ELI and #-ANTONOE. Both have been working together in the mornings, and while Lady Eli is the veteran fan favorite around these parts – coming back from a year break for a life threatening ailment last year in this spot…only to lose by ¾-length. She still received a standing ovation, and likely will get some big cheers again today in the Post Parade. Take your pick on top, but I’m going to have go with the younger newcomer, Antonoe as my TOP PICK. She had a bit of a troubled trip down the stretch LTO, and ended up losing by a length to stablemate to Lady Eli. #6-Dickinson is an interesting option underneath, as I think she is also one that is capable of the stealing this race. Top flight connections don’t put their horses where they don’t belong, and while Paco Lopez hasn’t had a good meet up here, that doesn’t mean he isn’t capable of winning a big race. Should at least have a say in the outcome, and receive a paycheck. RACE 12 TOP 3 PICKS: #5 – #1 – #6.
Thank you for reading, and let’s cash more tickets than we rip this weekend!
Good Luck!
@SaratogaScotty1
