Whitney Weekend preview by @SaratogaScotty1

Whitney Stakes Weekend; Friday/Saturday, August 4-5, 2017

Well I “salvaged” my Week 2 by picking Paid Up Subscriber in the Shuvee Stakes last Sunday, and am saddened by the news that her racing career is over due to a fractured ankle coming out of that race! It’s the unfortunate part about this sport, but I wish her the best of luck in her next career as what will likely be a successful broodmare; look out! Any horse that wins a Graded Stakes race by 32+ lengths is downright impressive and special; I don’t care what the field size was like – especially considering Terra Promessa is a multiple graded stakes winner! 32+ lengths! Are you kidding me!?!? Anyway, my stats certainly took a hit in Week 2, but I’m ready to get back to my winning ways, and have some confident plays this weekend in four Graded Stakes races, including the Grade 1 Longines Testand the G1, $1.2 Million Whitney Stakes on Saturday. Updated stats below, and I’m looking for a huge rebound in Week 3 to get me back on par!

BETTING SEQUENCE: $2 TOP PICK Wn/Plc and $2 ExBox w/ TOP 3 PICKS = $16 total each race

Through Friday, Friday, 4th: Graded Stakes Races Only @ Saratoga
*Shuvee Stakes had three (3) runners, with WIN bets only. TOP PICK ONLY.
Top Picks à 3 for 11 (27%) / 6 for 11 ITM (55%)
Top 3 Picks à 15 for 31 ITM (48%)
Money Spent = $162.00
Money Won = $123.30
ROI: (- 24%)

The Graded Stakes get started on Friday afternoon, with the GII National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes – going 1-1/16 mile on turf, for 3yo fillies. As a side note, I missed a silent auction item this summer by $10 that included box seats on the Saturday of closing weekend with a private tour of the Hall of Fame and Racing Museum with none other than the legendary Tom Durkin! “Devastated” would be a pretty good word to use for describing my feelings after learning I lost. This is an interesting race to say the least, and there will likely be a price on a horse that is capable of winning this thing. The $200,000 purse will be contested by 9 runners, if it remains on the grass, and we have one MTO entry. We have some sure fire speed signed on from the inside and outside, as well as stalkers and proven winners that can close, alike. Top flight connections abound, this race is likely more wide open than I have handicapped it – as I see three horses that are clear cut here. The #2-BIG HANDSOME is my TOP PICK, and I’ll be happy with the ML odds of 2-1 come post time. This colt out is out of the always respectable Dutrow barn, which has some respectable 3yo talent to keep an eye on in Saratoga, and is a neck away from winning 4 straight – in what was a very troubled stretch run, where jockey JJ Castellano just couldn’t find room to run coming down the lane…once a narrow gap finally opened on the rail, somehow she snuck through to place second by a neck; behind the horse to the inside here, #1-Brick and Mortar. With an opening turning for home, I have no doubt this horse makes it the wire first. Needs a clean trip, but if he gets it, he’s winning. Period. In his first three maiden races, he lost to Tale of Silence (placed 2nd to Practical Joke LTO in the G3 Dwyer), Takaful (likely favorite in the Allen Jerkens, and 5+ length winner on opening day), and finally Cloud Computing (by 1.5 lengths) to start off his 3yo campaign back in February. Since then he has been nearly perfect, and I’m expecting big things. Eric Johnson, of the NHL’s Colorado Avalance, is part owner in this colt (ERJ Racing), and as a big hockey fan that’s just an added bonus here! Second pick is the real class of this race, #10-ARKLOW. The ML odds of 10-1 wouldn’t suggest that, but this horse is the only Graded Stakes winner of the bunch, and had a tough race LTO in the Belmont Derby. Let’s not forget he is a G2 winner on turf just a few months ago in May, and the rest of this field is primarily ungraded stakes winners, or even allowance winners. This horse was tested on dirt early in career, even running in some derby trail races as maiden, but broke his maiden on the Turf three back, and was 2 for 2 before getting blown out in the Belmont Derby on July 8th. I’m banking on that race being a fluke, and he’s been working on the Saratoga turf quite nicely since shipping up here a few weeks ago. Plus, Brad Cox is sure to breakthrough with a big one at some point this week; why not with a price! The inside draw goes to a perfect 3 for 3 Chad Brown starter that is the ML favorite, and will likely get hammered at the windows. The #1-Bricks and Mortar beat a solid field in the Manila, but benefited from Big Handsome getting pinned inside. Had a huge burst of the speed in the final 70 yards of that race, and while he’s been working nicely, I’m going to side with the other Belmont Derby entry in the field, #4-YOSHIDA(JPN) for my final pick. This is a Win Star/China Horse Club entry, and I know China Horse Club means business with the horses they invest in. Trained by Bill Mott, this youngster lost by a half-length in his debut, before busting the field by 4+ lengths next out at 1-1/8 mile. Came back on Preakness day to run in the James Murphy Stakes at Pimlico, and by no means did he get a clean trip, and came from way back to win by 4+ lengths again. Had a respectable Belmont Derby, but ran into a bit of trouble turning for home into the upper stretch, which likely cost him the race. Has been working well up in Saratoga since the Belmont Derby, and will be ready to fire with Irad in the irons. May need a hot pace up front to really shine, but this guy packs such a punch turning for a home that he should be there at the wire too. RACE 9 PICKS: #2 – #10 – #4

Saturday’s Graded Stakes action gets underway in Race 3, with the Grade 3 Waya Stakes. A 1 ½ miles excursion around the inner turf course, for F&M 3yo+ – this is a tough field to get a handle on. Five of these runners came out of River of Memories Stakes down at Belmont in early July, including the top 3 finishers – #1-Apple Betty, #7-Summersault and #4-Lottie, respectively. The #2-Estrechada(Arg) and #6-Evidently had troubled trips down the stretch to finish out of the money. This race had a pace that I could have competed with, and when it came time for the stretch run, it was a traffic jam everywhere you looked. The winner of that race, #1-Apple Betty, took advantage of a snail’s pace, and benefited from an open trip down the lane; not sure she is good enough to do that here, as there is some additional speed entered here to press the pace up front. Summersault and Lottie were coming hard once they found room to run, but it was too little, too late to catch the wire-to-wire winner. The horse I really like coming out of that race though, and my TOP PICK in here is the West Coast shipper, #2-ESTRACHADA, for Mike Puype. JJ Castellano gets the mount, and when you watch that last race, she saved all the ground on the rail, breaking from the rail, and just couldn’t find room at the top of the stretch to break free. After getting snubbed twice in the stretch, it looks like Prat eases off her, but she continues to dig in on her own and loses by under two lengths! Connections are so confident, they ship her back East for this spot – let’s get a price! The #4-SUFFUSED is the ML favorite, who hasn’t been able to get a win in her last 3, after going 3 for 4 with her only loss coming by a nose. She has run into Sea Calisi, Hawksmoor, and Rhainha Da Bateria (three CLASSY mares) in her last three though, so tough to really knock those non-wins; interesting, but who likes those 7-5 odds!? Graham Motion has two horses entered here, and after a tough Haskell Day for him, I have a feeling he’s looking to rebound up in Saratoga with the #5-Lottie and #8-GUILTY TWELVE, as both appear to be hitting their stride at the right time of year – coming off career-best BSF of 92 and 91, respectively. Guilty Twelve is a lightly raced 5yo that is getting better and better each race. Winner of back to back races stretching out, including a G3 LTO on Stars & Stripes Day at Belmont, the rider of those two is in town for the mount, and I always love that angle…especially with a colony like NYRA, where top riders are always available for mounts! G3 WAYA STAKES PICKS: #2 – #4 – #8

With some ungraded stakes races on Saturday’s card, the next Graded Stakes race comes in Race 8, with the Grade 1 Test. A 7 furlong dirt sprint for 3yo fillies, this $500k purse has attracted quite a few West Coast shippers to spice things up! With only 4 of the 10 entries being Graded Stakes winners, we have a group of lightly raced ladies that are all looking for their first Grade 1 victory. The #10-AMERICAN GAL is one of the West Coast shippers, and the ML 5-2 favorite after a freak-out 3yo-debut win LTO in the G3-Victory Ride stakes. A 3rd place finish in the BC Juvenile Fillies race last fall, she can handle distance too, with speed from the gate. Can sit off the pace too, and pounce, so could be a good fit in a race that could unfold in any number of ways. Bob Baffert has one entered here, with the #8-FAYPIEN, another one of the Graded Stakes winners, and my TOP PICK. This one has been firing off freakish works since starting her 3-race win streak back in April. Perfect 2 for 2 at this distance, the lightly raced filly has won 3 of 5 races lifetime, and perfect 5 for 5 ITM. Beat some big ones in the Graded Stakes win, and Baffert is no dummy with shipping horse to Saratoga! Another horse that is a perfect 2 for 2 at the demanding 7f distance, but will be at the opposite end of the betting spectrum as Faypien, is the #4-TEQUILITA. Her speed figures just aren’t up to par with this group, but she has been working extremely well for Michael Matz down at the Fair Hill Training Center, and is going to appreciate the cutback in distance after running the GP Oaks and Kentucky Oaks last two out. Won the G2-Forward Gal at this distance back in February, and will need speed up front to run into turning for home. With some inexperienced, yet talented 3yo’s signed on, I expect the pace to be hot, and closers to be able to close. 2:2-0-0 at 7 furlongs, and 6:1-3-0 at all other distances. G1 TEST PICKS: #8 – #10 – #4.

The feature race of the weekend comes in Saturday’s 9th Race, with the 90th Running of the Grade 1, $1.2 Million purse, Whitney Stakes; a 1-1/8 mile main track battle for 3yo+. This race is a classic, and I’m actually a little disappointed we only have a field of 7; but that has been the norm this year at Saratoga. There has been a lot of talk leading into this race, as outspoken owner Looch Racing Stables has two entered here, uncoupled, with one of them falling into the proverbial description of a “rabbit”. It doesn’t break any racing rules, but many within the industry appeared upset with the move. I could care less about the move, and it’s not going to help get much of a price on the clear favorite, and my TOP PICK #6-GUN RUNNER. GR’s only loss as a 4yo has come at the hands of Arrogate, in what might go down as one of the greatest come-from-behind victories of all time in the Dubai World Cup– unfortunately for Gun Runner, he is on the wrong side of that story! A runaway winner in the G1 Stephen Foster LTO, he appears to be in peak condition with a potentially huge pay day looming. Workouts in Saratoga have been top notch, and I just think this one is too good to beat; great single in the late Pick4. #1-War Story is the top horse from Looch Racing Stables in here, but they also have the #3-Cautious Giant as well – the speed. War Story will need to be up front early to have a say in this race, and Castellano keeps the mount which is always a good sign. Horse beat the #4-TU BRUTUS(CHI) last time out in the G2-Brooklyn Stakes, but IMHO needs 1 ¼ mile to have a say in the race, and not going to find that extra distance in this spot! Tu Brutus however is going to appreciate the cutback to 1-1/8 mile here, and is a Chilean import to the Contessa barn this year that threw up a 118 BSF in his first US start back in April! Couldn’t handle the 1-1/2 distance, but beat Royal Posse by 11 lengths going gate to wire in the 1-3/8 mile Flat Out Stakes in May…throwing up a 108 BSF…so she can handle this 1-1/8 mile distance, even with the speed and class signed on in here. #5-KEEN ICE is back to Saratoga, and while I don’t think he can beat this group, his biggest win ever came on this track against American Pharoah, and is now in Todd Pletcher’s hands, so it’s tough to dismiss in a big race up in Saratoga. Jose Ortiz was a winner on him last race in the 1 ¼ mile Suburban on July 9th, and keeps the mount in this one. Throw in the fact that he’s been working very well up in Saratoga, and we may have an upset brewing! G1 WHITNEY PICKS: #6 – #4 – #5

This is the final weekend away, before I am up in beautiful Saratoga for back-to-back long weekend visits, and I can’t wait! My Opening Day high is wearing off, and it’s time to get back up there for morning workouts, Roma subs and the Saratoga Special! Let’s cash more tickets than we rip this weekend, and build a little bank roll for the next couple weekend!

Good Luck!

Saratoga Scotty
@SaratogaScotty1