Closing Day at Saratoga. Selections by @SaratogaScotty1
Closing Day / LaborMAS 2017 – September 4, 2017
Well we got our TOP PICK across the wire first in the only Graded Stakes race of Sunday’s card, and we snuck in the exacta for good measure. Now sitting just behind breaking even, I have two chances today to get myself into the black numbers, and officially call this blog a success! Well, maybe not a success, but I had a blast covering the Graded Stakes races at Saratoga for 1minutetopost.com, and I’ll continue to follow the Graded Stakes action on the NYRA circuit through the fall meet at Belmont. I can’t promise anything during the Big A meet, out at Aqueduct, but who knows! Please make sure to follow me on Twitter, @SaratogaScotty1, and I can’t thank you all enough for tuning in regularly to read my thoughts. Let’s cash a few more tickets before it’s all over and we’re singing New York, New York after the finale! Before I get into my analysis today, my updated stats are below; as I’m gunning for that Positive ROI for both my TOP PICK bet, and my TOP 3 Exacta Box bet. As my Grandfather always said, in that Bronx accent that he never lost – “Go get ‘em Scott-so!”
Through Sunday, September 3, 2017: Graded Stakes Races Only @ Saratoga
(*Shuvee Stakes had three (3) runners, with WIN bets only. TOP PICK ONLY)
Top Picks à 9 for 31 (29%) / 19 for 31 ITM (61%)
Top 3 Picks à 43 for 91 ITM (47%)
BETTING SEQUENCE: $2 TOP PICK Wn/Plc and $2 ExBox w/ TOP 3 PICKS = $16 total each race
TOP PICKS:
Money Spent: $138.00
Money Won: $134.10
TOP PICK ROI: $0.97
TOP 3:
Money Spent = $454.00
Money Won = $410.70
OVERALL ROI: $0.90
The first of two Graded Stakes on the card kicks off the Late Pick4 in Race 7, with the G2-Bernard Baruch Hanicap, for 3yo+, going 1-1/6 Miles on the Mellon turf course. Inside speed has been the main ingredient to success on the Mellon turf course pretty much all meet, but most notably the past couple weeks (see: Voodoo Song), and it will be interesting to see what the heavy rains really did to the turf courses on Sunday. They have canceled all turf races except this one on the Mellon Course, and Race 8 on the Inner Turf, and Steve Byk has indicated that both are listed as Yielding. Will be interesting to see if a beautiful day up there does anything to help dry it out, but regardless, we’ll have moisture. This ABSOLUTELY has to go into your handicapping of this year, period. Chad Brown enters two in this race, with the #2-Takeover Target and the outside post, #9-PROJECTED. Projected gets the ideal post position for a stalking trip, his usual running style, and gets Blinkers for the first time today – an interesting move for this level race, but I’m not questioning Chad Brown in these spots! Interesting to see Joel Rosario take the mount on Takeover Target, and with JJ Castellano riding at Parx today for their Labor Day card, we get a fine rider in Florent Geroux. Has been training nicely since early July for this Saratoga meet, and ran a doozy on Yielding Turf in the G3-Poker back in June, losing by a neck to Ballagh Rocks – who subsequently came back to run 3rd in the G1-4 Star Dave Handicap. Takeover Target is racing in his second back after a 10 month layoff, and shockingly, Chad Brown doesn’t have stellar numbers, with 2nd off the layoff of 180+ days – only 18% (insert a little sarcasm there, as pretty much any other trainer would enjoy stats like that), but more importantly, he has a negative ROI; I’ll let this one beat me at what will surely be a short price. I believe the ML favorite in this one, #1-Heart to Heart, is a vulnerable favorite, as the 6 yo just can’t seem to really close them out this year, even with his quick early speed. Nice to see the speed figures right up where they should be, but it appears the endurance isn’t quite where it used to be – granted, in his last two, he’s gotten run down by Grade 1 talent, but there are some legit runners in this one too, and the 1-1/6 Miles gets even tougher with that quick early speed. #7-Glorious Empire is the other early foot in this race, and I’m predicting a major duel on the front end between #1 and #7. It doesn’t look like either will be able to hold that – both with their running patterns and the late speed also entered – so I’m really looking for horses of the pace, or deep closers to pick up the money. One I really like in this spot, along with improving sheet figures, is #3-DELTA PRINCE, for the Stronach Group. GP shippers have actually done okay for themselves up here, and this 4yo for Jimmy Jerkens had an impressive Saratoga Debut earlier in the meet, easily winning a $62kOC. Definitely a step up in class, but this lightly raced 4yo didn’t disappoint in his Graded Stakes debut, losing by a ½ length to the multiple grades stakes placed All Included for Todd Pletcher two back, in the G3-Poker. Jimmy Jerkens doesn’t rush his horses, and you’d have to imagine this one has a few more gears to go. Increasing speed figures since Day 1, including a major jump up when getting on grass four races back,; but the biggest questions will be whether he takes to a wet turf course, and if he can get the additional 1/16th of a mile – as he’s only seen firm turf at the 1 Mile distance, but has a nice 4:3-1-0 racing line on turf. Johnny V will likely sit him just off the quick early pace, and I’m hoping he’ll be the first on to pick up the pieces and cross the wire first, as I’m making #3-DELTA PRINCE my TOP PICK in the Bernard Baruch Handicap – let’s get a price! Closing out my Top 3 picks will be the #6-FORGE for Bill Mott and Juddmonte Farms. Bill Mott has had an excellent meet up in Saratoga, and while this one appears to be jumping up in class on paper, the sky is apparently the limit for this 4yo son of duel Breeder’s Cup winner Dubawi. Connections think very highly of this horse, and I do not doubt Bill Mott stealing a big one on Closing Day this year! B. BARUCH TOP 3 PICKS: #3 – #9 – #6
The real highlight of closing day, and one of the most anticipated races of the year (for me at least), is the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes, for 2yo’s, going 7 furlongs on the main track. This is likely where we see some Triple Crown trail horses, and who knows, we may even be watching next year’s Kentucky Derby winner in action today! It’s exciting to even think about, and congrats to the all the connections involved in this race – as it’s hard enough to have a 2yo make it to this type of race at this stage in their careers, let alone stay healthy enough to race it too! There is some major talent in theis 8-horse field, and I really think this is the kind of race that can go to any of these horses. We have one Graded Stakes winner entered, with #3-Firenze Fire, who won the G3 Sanford on opening weekend as the 7-2 second favorite. A homebred for Amore Stables, Jason Servis pushed the right buttons early, but has only been seen once since that Sanford win – a breeze on August 8th. #8-FREE DROP BILLY was coming late in that one race however, to only lose by a length behind Firenze Fire, and I think the added distance will play to the Billy’s advantage today. Plus, he has had three impressive workouts since the Sanford, and appears ready to fire once again – MY TOP PICK. Speed figures aren’t overly impressive coming out of the Sanford Stakes, as we have a few horses in here that have thrown up bigger BSF in their maiden victories, but with the outside post position, and late running style, I see Free Drop Billy sitting the perfect trip here. A very interesting play, and one that I think you’ll have to include, is the lone Maiden entered here, #7-GIVEMEAMINIT for Dallas Stewart. I saw Dallas Stewart at the Training Track on morning 3 weeks ago, before he had his first starter up here this year. I asked him about his horses, and he said he was coming in with small string of runners, but was looking for all of them to fire. Needless to say, he has cranked out an 8:2-1-2 running line since then, including a mighty big one with Forever Unbridled knocking off the champion Songbird, in the G1-Personal Ensign. After what he’s done up with limited runners late in the meet, I can’t doubt him in this spot. Let’s get a price here! I’m going to pass over the ML favorite #1-Mojovation, and while I’ll probably regret it in the end, I have really liked the way Dylan Davis has been riding this year, and I love that Kenny McPeek has given him the nod again on #2-OSKAR BLUES, in this big of a spot – Closing Day feature race at Saratoga…I mean, what better place to show the racing world that you are just one of the many great young jockey’s on the NYRA scene!? I know McPeek/Davis have been building a relationship since the Belmont Spring/Summer meet, and I’m going to give them the nod here to close out my TOP 3, in the final Graded Stakes race of 2017 at Saratoga. Let’s get some prices across the board, and end up with a flat bet profit on our Graded Stakes Top Pick bet AND Top 3 Exacta Box bet! Thanks for reading along, and see you at Belmont! HOPEFUL TOP 3 PICKS: #8 – #7 – #2.
Thank you for reading, and let’s cash more tickets than we rip on this closing day of Saratoga 2017!
Good Luck!
@SaratogaScotty1
