Saratoga Analysis 7-26-17 by @SaratogaScotty1

G2 Honorable Miss Handicap – Wednesday, July 26th, 2017

Before I get into my thoughts on this dirt sprint going 6f for F&M 3yo+ (that only drew 5 entrants!?), I’d like to take a minute to give a rundown of what exactly I’ll be doing this meet at Saratoga for @1minutetopost, and how my Opening Weekend went. Due to the inherent time commitment of taking handicapping seriously, and finding time to post something that is worthy for ANY reader to spend 5-10 minutes on, let alone worthy of a fellow handicappers time, I am going to be providing full race coverage for ALL GRADED STAKES RACES at good ‘ole Saratoga. Every graded stakes race will include my full horse review/analysis for each horse, and my TOP PICK as well as my TOP 3 picks for each race. Since we all want to see results, I will be keeping tabs on my successes AND failures, in a feeble attempt to gain your trust! Each Graded Stakes race will be bet consistently, to be able to track monetarily as well percentage-wise; because as I’ve been preaching – I’m always looking for value in my plays. Make sure you follow me on Twitter, because: YES I pay attention to how the track and tote board are playing, and try to adjust accordingly (if needed); and NO my picks are not typically true for all track conditions – I am handicapping as if FAST/FIRM, but will also pay attention to the weather, as I always do, so I can be as prepared as possible. I will do my best to tweet any changes, as I see fit, leading up to Post Times.

BETTING SEQUENCE: $2 TOP PICK Wn/Plc and $2 ExBox w/ TOP 3 PICKS = $16 total each race

Through Monday, July, 24th: Graded Stakes Races Only
Top Picks à 2 for 5 (40%) / 4 for 5 ITM (80%)
Top 3 Picks à 7 for 15 ITM (47%)
Money Spent = $80.00
Money Won = $120.00
ROI: 50% (NOT GUARANTEED, but guaranteed accurate!)

Enough with the past though, and onto the future, where there are new opportunities to be had – beginning with the G2 Honorable Miss on Wednesday, July 26th. This is a short field of five older ladies, in a 6f main track affair, but includes multiple graded stakes winners, including the back-to-back G1 winner, and millionaire, Paulassilverlining. But let me dig into things first, and do the dirty work for you, before we just assume anything; because from I can see, this race is wide open! The #1-Disco Chick won her last out in a 5-horse/6f Monmouth ungraded stakes race, JUST 9 DAYS AGO. She is the oldest in this race by only one year, but has way more than one year of races in front of these other gals by over 20 races – and is tied for the most wins with 10 (2nd most seasoned horse, Paulassilverlining, has only run 20 times lifetime…and is also tied for the most wins with 10!)! Safe to say this girl is a “work horse”, and connections looking to redeem themselves from last year’s Honorable Miss 3rd place finish…beaten by 12 lengths to MGSW’s HaveYouGoneAway and Paulassilverlining. She may be outclassed here, but when you throw out the All-Weather and sloppy track attempts two and three back, she is 5 for 5 ITM in 2017 and certainly still in good form. Winner of over $750,000 herself, sometimes experience can trump (Make Horse Racing Great Again?) successes on the racetrack; especially in a fight to the finish, which I suspect this race to be. Jockey from last comes up to the Spa for a taste too, and that is always nice to see; especially for a horse that has run 40 times in her life, and will have had five different jockeys in eight races this year; you feel me? Here is the really interesting fact/angle – last time she ran back-to-back like this (January of this year), she came back just 8 days later, only to throw up a higher BSF by 8 points and get nipped at the wire for the win. Any increase in BSF from this one’s last, and she is right in the mix with these other ladies…but she’s 12-1 ML, and the rest of the field will be WAY shorter priced! Likely can’t get to wire first with this group, but certainly capable of disrupting a chalky finish. By the way, for those that auto dismiss her against this group – the winning time of her victory 9 days ago puts her right in the mix with the best times from the favorites in here…and beats the winning time from last year’s rendition of this race; just saying. #2-By The Moon has really done nothing wrong since 2015, and has recorded back-to-back G3 wins coming into today; while amassing $1.25 million. So yeah, confidence is high. She has never raced this 6f distance before though, and while I think she might prefer to have the extra distance she is typically accustomed to (7f – 1m), her Tomlinson fig at the 6f dx is 419! Rajiv Maragh retains the mount for 3rd straight race, and typical 13% jockey/15% trainer Michelle Nevin have been an impressive 31% so far this year (4 of 13 winners) when teaming up. Will she blowout trying to catch the outside speed of the race, and falter too soon; or run out of distance trying to catch the front runners?? Maybe she’ll even wire the field? Jockey certainly knows the horse, and we’ll just have to let this race unfold to find out. #3-Paulassilverlining is the class of this race, as she’s BC16 F&M Sprint Placed, and a MG1SW. The 5yo mare is new to trainer Chad Brown this year; after Michelle Nevin guided her to a midnight stakes victory, G1 Showing and G2 win in her last three races of 2016, respectively. Unfortunately for Nevin, Paula is now a MG1SW with back-to-back G1 wins to kick off 2017 with her new, reigning Eclipse Award winning trainer. Her speed figs have been increasing since last year, and she loves this distance – 8:5-2-0. Jose Ortiz has ridden Paula on her 3-race win streak, and is back aboard for this one; must include, but not convinced. The #4-Clothes Fall Off is my TOP PICK for this race, and I think (eh, hope?) this horse is LIVE. She has not been seen since April of this year, and actually had an eerily similar Winter and Spring last year, to this year. January preps at Aqueduct, followed by the G2 Barbara Fritchie Stakes down at Laurel in February, and then back-to-back wins in the Correction Stakes at Aqueduct come March; followed finally by blowout losses in the G1 Madison at Keeneland in April. She wasn’t seen after that troubled defeat last year (4/16), until January of this year (1/17), and then had the same situation occur this year…except we’re seeing her at Saratoga this year; ta da! My assumption is this path was always the plan last year, as a 4yo, and at some point connections just restarted the clock with their eyes set on the Spa! Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, who knows how to place his horses for success at Saratoga, she has been working extremely well and consistent in the mornings since returning to the work tab June 23rd down at Belmont – which is why I think she’s live. McLaughlin would have had her up at private Saratoga facility if they had definite plans for her. Did I mention she is a first out winner at Saratoga, and then lost by a nose to the graded stakes winning/MG1SP Paid Up Subscriber in her next start at the Spa? Spoiler Alert: she can fire fresh, and loves this track. If you even go back to her last start at the Spa, a troubled trip in the G2 Prioress Stakes back in 2015, turning for home this horse was going to win that race; just watch it for yourself, she’s the #4 along the rail – 2015 G2 Prioress Stakes – Saratoga. Squeezed out hard trying to cut the corner on the rail, and possibly even lightly checked a couple times throughout the race, jockey Jose Ortiz lost his whip trying to alter their course down the stretch, losing all hope of anything. Did I mention she has beaten PaulasSilverLining? Connections know this horse loves Saratoga, and too respectable to put her in this spot if they didn’t think she could win it; need a huge ride from Joel Rosario here; betting more than my $2 WP on this one! The outside draw, and the definite speed of this race, is the #5-Finley’sluckycharm. Her speed figs are right there with the best, and she is another back-to-back graded stakes winner; with two G3 wins to go along with her midnight stakes win to kick off 2017 – so that’s 3:3-0-0 this year if you’re counting. Oh wait, plus a perfect 5:5-0-0 at this distance lifetime. She had a lighter work on the main track a week ago, and regular rider ships in for this mount. Might have caught some lighter competition during the win streak at CD, but she was a 2nd place finisher in the G1 La Brea stakes at Santa Anita for her 2016 bow. Besides that G1 Placing, she is a perfect 5 for 5 as the odds-on, Post Time favorite. Typically I like seeing favorites defend their odds, and am often impressed, but just not doing it for me for some reason. She was supposed to win those races, and did. She’s the one to catch, period; and could run away with it, but I’ll only consider when she outperforms her odds. So far; she has only lived up to them; ya know what I mean? There is rain in the forecast for Tuesday, and obviously Monday’s track was a slop fest, so I’m figuring the track is going to be playing with some moisture in it; even late in the day Wednesday, and even if it doesn’t rain any more. Incredibly, these five entries all have impressive numbers on wet tracks, so I’m likely not changing my picks here due to weather concerns. RACE 9 PICKS: #4 – #3 – #1

I will NOT have any picks for the Graded Steeplechase race on Thursday’s card, but we have FIVE GRADED STAKES races on Saturday/Sunday, including the G1 Vanderbilt, and ultimate feature of Saturday’s card – the GII Jim Dandy for the 3yo classic runners that have an eye on the Travers Stakes later this meet. I will be attending the other 3yo Travers “prep” race this weekend, the G1 Haskell Invitational, aka “The War at the Shore” – which also happens to be a Win and You’re In© Breeder’s Cup Challenge race. It’s shaping up to be a phenomenal weekend of racing, and make sure to keep @SaratogaScotty1 and @1minutetopost in your news feeds.

Saratoga has six full days of racing each week through Labor Day. With 69 Stakes races, totaling nearly $19 million in purse money over the 40-day meet make sure to keep your browser tuned to 1MinuteToPost.com on a weekly basis, as we’ll be bringing you track insights, horse and trainer tips, full horse writeup on all Graded Stakes races, spot plays, and anything else that is Saratoga horse racing! Please make sure to follow me on Twitter – @SaratogaScotty1

Best of Luck!

@SaratogaScotty1